525
FXUS66 KLOX 191651
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
851 AM PST THU FEB 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
19/828 AM.
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPERING
OFF IN MOST AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT LINGERING IN SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. IT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY
TODAY AND TONIGHT, BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEXT TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
19/848 AM.
***UPDATE***
RAIN HAS ARRIVED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT LA COUNTY BUT
THAT WILL HAPPEN SHORTLY. SO FAR RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN PRETTY TAME
BUT THERE HAVE BEEN POCKETS OF HALF INCH PER HOUR RATES ACROSS SLO
AND SB COUNTIES. RAIN TOTALS OVER SLO COUNTY WERE MOSTLY UNDER AN
AN INCH AND EXPECTING THAT TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STORM
WORKS ITS WAY EAST. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 4000 FEET AND THERE
HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SNOW ON I5 OVER THE GRAPEVINE THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 50 AND 65 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WINDS
WILL PICK UP ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST, AND WIND ADVISORIES
ARE IN PLACE FOR THAT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM. SOME INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FOR TIME PERIODS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
WEAK CAPE VALUES, AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -25
DEGREES CELSIUS OVER NORTHERN SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, BUT THE LACK
OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE TROUGH DEVIATE FROM NBM
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. OFFICIALLY, THE FORECAST
ADVERTISES A LESS THAN 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT
BEING SAID, THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY WOULD INDICATE A NON-ZERO CHANCE. GIVEN DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOLAR INSOLATION, LAPSE RATES COULD STEEPEN ENOUGH TO
GIVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SNOW WILL GENERALLY OCCUR ABOVE 4000 FEET,
BUT WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, THE SNOW LEVEL COULD LOCALLY FALL
TO AROUND 3000 FEET. ON TOP OF WHAT IS ALREADY ON THE GROUND, THERE
REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF 5-10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 6000
FEET. THE GRAPEVINE PORTION OF INTERSTATE 5 COULD SEE UP TO AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE TEJON PASS LATER THIS MORNING.
TRAVEL ON MOUNTAIN ROADS MAY BE AFFECTED BY ACCUMULATING AND
BLOWING SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ANYONE TRAVELING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR TREACHEROUS WINTRY DRIVING
CONDITIONS, DELAYS, OR ROAD CLOSURES. YOUR VEHICLE SHOULD ALWAYS
HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT STOCKED WITH EXTRA BLANKETS, CLOTHING,
FOOD, AND WATER WHEN DRIVING IN WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. SNOW
WILL TURN TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT MODERATE
SHOWER ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE STORM
HAS PASSED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS.
THUS, A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM
FRIDAY.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS MORNING
AS THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL TIGHTEN WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING
DOWN THE STATE. WIND SUPPORT ALOFT WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING AT
LEAST WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MOST COASTAL, VALLEY,
AND FOOTHILL AREAS, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS COULD REACH OR EXCEED DAMAGING LEVELS.
HIGH-RESOLUTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A HIGH TO
LIKELY CHANCE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTION
OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, AND ALONG THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND DOWN INTO THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY WHERE GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
A COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY BUT STILL ABOUT 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE THE COLDEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. A COLD AIR MASS WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME OF THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
19/303 AM.
THE LATEST FORECAST ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER IN THE
LATEST SOLUTIONS, NOT ONLY DELAYING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BUT
DECREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PREVIOUS ENSEMBLES. AS THE
STORM STALLS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, RIDGING ALOFT WILL
VERY LIKELY DEVELOP AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY
ESTABLISH. CHILLY MORNINGS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE IN AS SOON AS MONDAY, BUT WPC CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SEEMS TO FAVOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SOMETIME BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY IF IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN. EPS AND GEFS
MEMBERS BACK OFF QPF AMOUNTS FOR NEXT WEEK, WHILE CLUSTER ANALYSIS
WOULD INDICATE A 35-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK AT ALL WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE REMAINING CLUSTERS SUGGEST A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
19/1650Z.
AT 1645Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. TIMING OF RAIN
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. THERE WILL BE A 10%
CHANCE OF TSTMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8-10 KNOTS
WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY 20Z (IF NOT AN HOUR
EARLIER).
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
19/714 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE THIS MORNING, THEN WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AND DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING. AS FOR
SEAS, THE SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THEN, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY, SAVE FOR THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF PT. SAL, WHERE
THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM SCA
LEVELS TO GALE FORCE LEVELS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN DROP TO SCA LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
THERE IS A LESS THAN 15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING.
BEACHES
19/104 AM.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE SWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SURF PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. ADDITIONALLY,
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND TIDAL OVERFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
HIGH TIDES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTS, PLEASE SEE THE CFWLOX AND SRFLOX
PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 38-344-345-353-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 87-88-340>343-346>352-354>358-362-366>376-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR ZONES 353-376>382. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
645-650-655-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...LUND/BLACK/RAT
BEACHES...BLACK/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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