357
FXUS66 KLOX 051000
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 AM PST THU MAR 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
05/127 AM.
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY, THEN WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING INTO A TRADITIONAL MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. AN OVERALL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
80S BY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
05/200 AM.
THE NORTH WIND EVENT IS UPON US. AT THE UPPER LEVELS, THE AXIS OF
THE TROUGH HAS SITUATED ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE
UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH CALIFORNIA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS, THUS WIND SPEEDS OF 35-50 MPH WITH HIGHER ELEVATION
GUSTS OF 55-65 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THIS MORNING.
ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN UNCHANGED, EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTENSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING (HWW) THROUGH 9 AM THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS MORNING, BUT SOME OF
THE HWWS MAY NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO WIND ADVISORIES ON THE HEELS
OF THE EXPIRY TIMES. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY PULSE UP AGAIN IN THE
EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAKER THAN THIS
MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WIND
ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED IN SIMILAR AREAS.
THE SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY, AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR OFFSHORE EAST TO WEST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MUTED FRIDAY, BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF AND ORIENT
ITSELF SUCH THAT NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ALMOST IN PARALLEL
WITH SURFACE WINDS. SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE
WINDS, MAKING SATURDAY THE MOST POTENT DAY IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS
FOR THIS SANTA ANA WIND EVENT. SUNDAY WILL START OFF QUITE WINDY
AS WELL, BUT A SKOSH WEAKER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
THIS SANTA ANA WIND EVENT DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
THE CURRENT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF. THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-55 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55-65 MPH ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE OF THE
LIMITING/DRIVING FACTORS IN THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS IS THE
POSITIONING OF THE CUTOFF LOW. IF THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT IS
FAVORABLE (MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION), THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 25-40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 60-75 MPH,
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE SPEED OF THE
SOUTHWEST TRANSIT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TIMING OF
THE PEAK WINDS. OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THINGS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLIGHTLY LATER, SO STAY TUNED FOR BETTER INFO ON THE TIMING AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED, A SLEW
OF WIND ADVISORIES AND HWW’S ARE LIKELY FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
IMPACTS: THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT PEAKING THROUGH THIS MORNING,
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN LA COUNTY WILL CREATE
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS MAJOR FREEWAYS SUCH
AS THE I-5, THE I-405, AND EVEN TRAVEL DELAYS DUE TO CROSSWINDS
AT LAX. DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY’S SANTA ANA EVENT, THERE
AGAIN IS A RISK FOR DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES (AND POWER
OUTAGES), AS WELL AS HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND CORRIDOR OF LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
BLOWING DEBRIS MAY ALSO CREATE FURTHER HAZARDS ON THE ROADS FROM
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY AS INTERIOR AREAS COOL
SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL WARM FRIDAY, THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL WARM UP
STEADILY. BY SUNDAY, MOST OF LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES WILL REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHILE SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTIES WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
05/200 AM.
AS THE TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED SOME,
SO HAS THE EXPECTED TIMING FOR THIS PESKY LOW TO EXIT THE REGION.
MONDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL BEGIN NUDGING THE LOW EASTBOUND AND SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SHIFT FROM OFFSHORE TOWARDS NEUTRAL, LIKELY
BECOMING ONSHORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL LIKELY COOL UNDER THE MARINE INFLUENCE, BUT COASTAL
VALLEYS AND INTERIOR AREAS ARE A BIT TRICKIER DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. QUICKER TIMING AND STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR COOLING OF COASTAL VALLEYS AND WARMING OF
THE INTERIOR (DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS). WIDESPREAD COOLING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 60S AND 70S
EVERYWHERE. THE INCREASING STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME DRAMATIC WARMING WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
05/0547Z.
AT 0453Z, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 1100 FT DEEP AT KLAX. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15
DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS FOR MOST TAF SITES, EXCEPT MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE VENTURA AND LA COUNTY COASTAL SITES WHERE THE
FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD BE OFF BY 1, AND THE TIMING COULD BE OFF
BY +/- 2 HOURS. CHANCE FOR NO CIGS AT KOXR (30%) AND KCMA (40%).
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST AS TIMING OF WIND GROUP
CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS. MDT LLWS DUE TO INCREASING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KPRB AND KSBP. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR KSBA, KLAX, KSMO, KBUR FOCUSED 06Z-18Z. MDT
TURBULENCE ALSO LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER TERRAIN.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE SOMETIME BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PEAK
WIND GUSTS, BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BEING BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z, THEN AGAIN 06/00Z-08Z. LLWS LIKELY DUE TO WIND SPEEDS
RAPIDLY INCREASING WITH HEIGHT 10Z-18Z (+/- 3 HOURS).
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LLWS POSSIBLE DUE TO WIND
SPEEDS RAPIDLY INCREASING WITH HEIGHT 08Z-18Z (+/- 3 HOURS),
HOWEVER.
MARINE
04/703 PM.
***UPDATE***
HAVE PUSHED BACK THE STARTING TIME OF GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS
ADJACENT TO LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTY (PZZ655) TO 1 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL N WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS NEARSHORE FROM MALIBU TO PALO VERDES. THESE WINDS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
***MAIN DISCUSSION***
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR WINDS. LESS CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST FOR SEAS. SEAS COULD BE UP TO 1-3 FEET HIGHER THAN
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) AND GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOME WATERS.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE
IS A HIGH TO LIKELY (40 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE (30-40
PERCENT) CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INSIDE THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BIGHT, AND HIGH (40-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 87-88-349>352-356-357-366-367-371>375-381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ZONES
349-351-352. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 353-376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS
MORNING FOR ZONES 362-369-370-379-380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ZONES
645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ZONE
655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...BL
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...HALL/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...BL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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