295
FXUS66 KLOX 051751
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
951 AM PST THU MAR 5 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
05/127 AM.
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY, THEN WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING INTO A TRADITIONAL MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. AN OVERALL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
80S BY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
05/902 AM.
***UPDATE***
HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
CONVERTED TO WIND ADVISORIES AND BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON TODAY.
ADDITIONAL WIND HAZARDS (EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ADVISORIES) ARE
LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR THE MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND STARTING LATE
TONIGHT.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE NORTH WIND EVENT IS UPON US. AT THE UPPER LEVELS, THE AXIS OF
THE TROUGH HAS SITUATED ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE
UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH CALIFORNIA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS, THUS WIND SPEEDS OF 35-50 MPH WITH HIGHER ELEVATION
GUSTS OF 55-65 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THIS MORNING.
ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN UNCHANGED, EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTENSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING (HWW) THROUGH 9 AM THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS MORNING, BUT SOME OF
THE HWWS MAY NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO WIND ADVISORIES ON THE HEELS
OF THE EXPIRY TIMES. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY PULSE UP AGAIN IN THE
EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAKER THAN THIS
MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WIND
ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED IN SIMILAR AREAS.
THE SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY, AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR OFFSHORE EAST TO WEST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MUTED FRIDAY, BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF AND ORIENT
ITSELF SUCH THAT NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ALMOST IN PARALLEL
WITH SURFACE WINDS. SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE
WINDS, MAKING SATURDAY THE MOST POTENT DAY IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS
FOR THIS SANTA ANA WIND EVENT. SUNDAY WILL START OFF QUITE WINDY
AS WELL, BUT A SKOSH WEAKER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
THIS SANTA ANA WIND EVENT DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
THE CURRENT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF. THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-55 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55-65 MPH ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE OF THE
LIMITING/DRIVING FACTORS IN THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS IS THE
POSITIONING OF THE CUTOFF LOW. IF THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT IS
FAVORABLE (MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION), THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 25-40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 60-75 MPH,
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE SPEED OF THE
SOUTHWEST TRANSIT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TIMING OF
THE PEAK WINDS. OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THINGS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLIGHTLY LATER, SO STAY TUNED FOR BETTER INFO ON THE TIMING AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED, A SLEW
OF WIND ADVISORIES AND HWW’S ARE LIKELY FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
IMPACTS: THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT PEAKING THROUGH THIS MORNING,
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN LA COUNTY WILL CREATE
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS MAJOR FREEWAYS SUCH
AS THE I-5, THE I-405, AND EVEN TRAVEL DELAYS DUE TO CROSSWINDS
AT LAX. DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY’S SANTA ANA EVENT, THERE
AGAIN IS A RISK FOR DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES (AND POWER
OUTAGES), AS WELL AS HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND CORRIDOR OF LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
BLOWING DEBRIS MAY ALSO CREATE FURTHER HAZARDS ON THE ROADS FROM
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY AS INTERIOR AREAS COOL
SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL WARM FRIDAY, THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL WARM UP
STEADILY. BY SUNDAY, MOST OF LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES WILL REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHILE SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTIES WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
05/200 AM.
AS THE TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED SOME,
SO HAS THE EXPECTED TIMING FOR THIS PESKY LOW TO EXIT THE REGION.
MONDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL BEGIN NUDGING THE LOW EASTBOUND AND SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SHIFT FROM OFFSHORE TOWARDS NEUTRAL, LIKELY
BECOMING ONSHORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL LIKELY COOL UNDER THE MARINE INFLUENCE, BUT COASTAL
VALLEYS AND INTERIOR AREAS ARE A BIT TRICKIER DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. QUICKER TIMING AND STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR COOLING OF COASTAL VALLEYS AND WARMING OF
THE INTERIOR (DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS). WIDESPREAD COOLING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 60S AND 70S
EVERYWHERE. THE INCREASING STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME DRAMATIC WARMING WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
05/1750Z.
AT 1632Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR AN INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. TIMING OF WIND
GROUP CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE OFF
BY 10 KTS. LIGHT TO MODERATE LLWS EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD. STRONGEST THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING (06/06Z
TO 06/17Z) AND FOCUSED ACROSS LA/VTA COUNTIES OVER AND NEAR HIER
TERRAIN. MODERATE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY, WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR POCKETS OF SEVERE TURBULENCE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME
PERIOD ACROSS OFFSHORE WIND PRONE SITES SUCH AS KVNY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS UP TO
AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH 05/22Z. LLWS AND TURBULENCE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 06/17Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LIGHT TO MODERATE LLWS AND
TURBULENCE LIKELY THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY 06/06Z TO
06/16Z.
MARINE
05/808 AM.
PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING, WITH STEEP, CHOPPY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL
SEAS. GALES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE DAY FRIDAY.
EACH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THERE IS A
30-40 PERCENT OF GALE FORCE NE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, AND A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ZONES
87-366-367. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ZONES
88-362-369>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ZONES
645-650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...BL/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...LUND/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...BL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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