027
FXUS66 KLOX 071102
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
302 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
07/205 AM.
MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S. BRIEFLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER WARM
AND DRY SPELL EXPECTED TO START ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
07/205 AM.
A 556 DAM UPPER LOW IS RETROGRADING TO THE SW AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON IT WILL BE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SSW OF SAN DIEGO. THIS
TRAJECTORY WILL BRING NE WINDS ALOFT STACKED NEATLY FROM 850MB TO
500 MB. THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH 4 TO 5 MB OFF
OFFSHORE SFC FLOW FROM BOTH THE N AND E TO CONTINUE THE MODERATE
SANTA ANA WIND EVENT. TODAY WILL BE THE STRONGEST DAY OF THE THREE
DAY EVENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE RIDGETOPS OF THE
SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS AND THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS
FROM 60 TO 70 MPH. THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE SANTA ANA WIND
CORRIDOR (A ~20 MILE WIDE AREA BEGINNING IN THE SANTA CLARITA VLY
AND ENDING AT MUGU NAS) WILL SEE STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM
40 TO 55 MPH. WHILE NOT IN THE FORECAST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF A MTN WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MTNS AND
THEN DESCENDING ON A PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VLY. IF THIS
DEVELOPS LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH WOULD OCCUR. PLEASE SEE THE
LAXNPWLOX PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS. MAX
TEMPS WILL NOT WARM AS MUCH AS PERHAPS ONE WOULD EXPECT AS THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF COOL AIR ADVECTION. THIS COOL AIR WILL
LIMIT AREAS AWAY FROM THE CST TO ONLY WARM 1 TO 2 DEGREES, THE
COASTAL AREA WILL HAVE MORE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND WILL SEE 3
TO 5 DEGREE OF WARMING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CSTS ENDING UP
WARMING THAN THE VLYS TODAY. MOST CST/VLY TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S
TODAY WITH A SMATTERING OF 80S.
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO
WIND SHELTERED AREAS TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL SWITCH TO AN UNFAVORABLE FOR
WINDS SE DIRECTION. THE SFC GRADS ACTUALLY BECOME MORE OFFSHORE
AND WILL BE ABOUT 6 MB OFFSHORE FROM BOTH THE N AND E. THE LACK OF
UPPER SUPPORT, HOWEVER, WILL OVERSHADOW THE INCREASES OFFSHORE SFC
FLOW AND WEAKER WINDS WILL RESULT. THERE WILL BE NO WARNING LEVEL
GUSTS, ONLY ADVISORY LEVEL 35 MPH TO 45 MPH GUSTS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN TALKING POINT OF THE DAY. CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A LACK OF COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO JUMP 8 TO 12 LOCALLY 15 DEGREES. THIS WILL BRING MAX
TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CSTS AND
VLYS OR ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. WHILE THESE NUMBERS
ARE VERY WARM THEY COME IN JUST UNDER HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL, STILL
IF YOU PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES - TAKE HEAT PRECAUTIONS. RECORDS
FOR THE DAY ARE QUITE HIGH AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOUCHED.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOLER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS.
THE GREAT BASIN HIGH WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY EARLY MONDAY. SO MUCH
SO THAT GRADIENTS TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE IN THE MORNING. SOMETIMES
SUCH A FAST REVERSAL ALLOWS MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO FORM BUT RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY. THE LACK OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING SEABREEZE
TO THE CSTS AND VLYS AND MAX TEMPS WILL COLLAPSE - COOLING 10 TO
15 DEGREES AND ENDING UP IN THE 70S WITH MID AND UPPER 60S AT THE
BEACHES.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
07/205 AM.
A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PEAK AT THIS TIME AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE CSTS AND
SOME OF THE VLYS. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 DEGREE OF COOLING
MAKING TUESDAY THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 WITH CST/VLY HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURE WHIPLASH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE STATE AND THE ONSHORE PUSH RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND
EVEN BECOMES SLIGHTLY ONSHORE IN THE MORNING. THERE IS A CHC THAT
SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE LA SOUTH COAST AND THE WESTERN SBA COUNTY
COAST COULD SEE SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT ODDS ARE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR EVERYWHERE. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK VERY WARM. THE EAST PAC RIDGE WILL PEAK
AND HGTS WILL RISE TO ~588 DAM. THERE WILL BE 2 TO 4 MB OF
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING SOME NON ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS TO THE NE PASSES AND CANYONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL JUMP 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND THEN CHANGE LITTLE
ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR CST/VLY HIGHS TO REACH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S
EACH DAY. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE 15 TO 20 DEGREES OVER NORMAL.
BOTH THE AI-EC AND THE AI-GFS SHOW NO RAINFALL THROUGH THE 21ST.
AVIATION
07/0905Z.
AT 0900Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SURFACE
BASED INVERSION. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES CELSIUS.
FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
WIND FORECASTS FOR SITES ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
WITH TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECAST AND GUSTS COULD BE OFF 5-10 KNOTS FROM FORECAST.
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE TURBULENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT 10-14 KNOTS BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST AS DIRECTION
COULD BE +/- 30 DEGREES OF CURRENT FORECAST AND GUSTS COULD
BE +/- 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
07/105 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS PZZ676 WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS
PZZ670/673. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS FOR ALL THE OUTER WATERS
WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PZZ670 ON TUESDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SCA LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA AND ACROSS THE SAN
PEDRO CHANNEL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
ELSEWHERE. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN INNER
WATERS.
THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT OF WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS REACHING AVALON THIS MORNING, WITH WIND DRIVEN WAVES UP TO
3 FEET POSSIBLE.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 87-366>368-381-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 88-354-355-358-362-369>374-376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 375-379-380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
PM PST SUNDAY FOR ZONES 375-379-380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RS/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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