124
FXUS66 KLOX 071658
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
858 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
07/205 AM.
MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S. BRIEFLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER WARM
AND DRY SPELL EXPECTED TO START ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
07/858 AM.
A 555 DAM UPPER LOW IS RETROGRADING TO THE SW AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON IT WILL BE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SSW OF SAN DIEGO. THIS
SYSTEM IS BRINGING STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ALOFT FROM 850 MB
TO 500 MB LEVEL TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS COMBINING WITH
4 MB OFFSHORE SFC FLOW FROM BOTH THE N AND E TO CONTINUE THE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT. TODAY IS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL
AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS, WITH DAMAGING GUSTS FROM 60 TO 70
MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND CORRIDOR AREAS,
ALSO SEEING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN AREAS THAT TYPICALLY
DO NOT SEE MUCH OFFSHORE WINDS SUCH AS THE LA BASIN (ESPECIALLY
WEST LA) AND THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (ESPECIALLY FOOTHILLS NEAR
HIGHWAY 210 CORRIDOR), DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT
AND ASSOCIATED MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND ACTIVITY. AS OF 830 AM,
ALREADY SEEING A NUMBER OF OBSERVING STATIONS SEEING WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH ACROSS THE LA BASIN AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY,
WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY
FOOTHILLS AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR
THE STRONGEST WINDS TO CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT HIGH
WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN ON TRACK. THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS INCLUDE DOWNED TREES
AND POWERLINES AS WELL AS ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND BLOWING DUST,
INCLUDING THE POPULATED URBAN AREAS OF THE LA BASIN AND SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY.
ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG,
AND WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACTUALLY BECOME MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL BE ABOUT 6 MB OFFSHORE FROM
BOTH THE N AND E. THE WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT, HOWEVER,
WILL OVERSHADOW THE INCREASING OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW, KEEPING
MOST OF THE OFFSHORE WINDS FOCUSED IN THE MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA
WIND PRONE CORRIDORS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES, AND OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS NOT AS STRONG IN MOST AREAS. NO HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL
WINDS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE MANY
WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT, WITH GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH
RANGE.
THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND
DRYING TO THE REGION TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. WITH THIS
TYPE OF EVENT, COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER 80S TODAY, AND AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY (ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL), WHICH COULD APPROACH RECORD LEVELS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE, WILL BE
CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LA BASIN VALID FOR SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW EARLY IN
THE YEAR THIS HEAT IS OCCURRING, AND THE LARGE LA MARATHON RACE
WHICH COULD NOW SEE TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND 90 DEGREES BY THE END
OF THE EVENT. WHILE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS EVENT DUE TO THE CONTINUED MOIST VEGETATION LEVELS, THE HOT,
DRY (HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO SINGLE DIGITS), AND WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL FIRE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
THE GREAT BASIN HIGH WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY EARLY MONDAY. SO MUCH
SO THAT GRADIENTS TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE IN THE MORNING. SOMETIMES
SUCH A FAST REVERSAL ALLOWS MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO FORM BUT RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY. THE LACK OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING SEABREEZE
TO THE CSTS AND VLYS AND MAX TEMPS WILL COLLAPSE - COOLING 10 TO
15 DEGREES AND ENDING UP IN THE 70S WITH MID AND UPPER 60S AT THE
BEACHES.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
07/205 AM.
A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PEAK AT THIS TIME AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE CSTS AND
SOME OF THE VLYS. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 DEGREE OF COOLING
MAKING TUESDAY THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 WITH CST/VLY HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURE WHIPLASH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE STATE AND THE ONSHORE PUSH RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND
EVEN BECOMES SLIGHTLY ONSHORE IN THE MORNING. THERE IS A CHC THAT
SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE LA SOUTH COAST AND THE WESTERN SBA COUNTY
COAST COULD SEE SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT ODDS ARE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR EVERYWHERE. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK VERY WARM. THE EAST PAC RIDGE WILL PEAK
AND HGTS WILL RISE TO ~588 DAM. THERE WILL BE 2 TO 4 MB OF
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING SOME NON ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS TO THE NE PASSES AND CANYONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL JUMP 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND THEN CHANGE LITTLE
ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR CST/VLY HIGHS TO REACH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S
EACH DAY. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE 15 TO 20 DEGREES OVER NORMAL.
BOTH THE AI-EC AND THE AI-GFS SHOW NO RAINFALL THROUGH THE 21ST.
AVIATION
07/0905Z.
AT 0900Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SURFACE
BASED INVERSION. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES CELSIUS.
FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
WIND FORECASTS FOR SITES ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
WITH TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECAST AND GUSTS COULD BE OFF 5-10 KNOTS FROM FORECAST.
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE TURBULENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT 10-14 KNOTS BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST AS DIRECTION
COULD BE +/- 30 DEGREES OF CURRENT FORECAST AND GUSTS COULD
BE +/- 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
07/758 AM.
***UPDATE***
WILL BE EXTENDING ALL CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. ZONES: PZZ676/650/655.
***MAIN DISCUSSION***
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS PZZ676 WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS
PZZ670/673. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS FOR ALL THE OUTER WATERS
WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PZZ670 ON TUESDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SCA LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA AND ACROSS THE SAN
PEDRO CHANNEL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
ELSEWHERE. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN INNER
WATERS.
THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT OF WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS REACHING AVALON THIS MORNING, WITH WIND DRIVEN WAVES UP TO
3 FEET POSSIBLE.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 87-366>368-381-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 88-354-355-358-362-369>374-376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 375-379-380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
PM PST SUNDAY FOR ZONES 375-379-380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RORKE
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT/DB
SYNOPSIS...RS/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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