950
FXUS66 KLOX 091045
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
09/235 AM.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COASTAL EDDY
BRINGS SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE AREA. THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER WARM UP EXPECTED TO START ON
WEDNESDAY, LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
09/1246 AM.
TODAY WILL BE MUCH LESS WINDY AND MUCH COOLER THAN SUNDAY. A LARGE
554 DAM UPPER LOW IS SPINNING WELL SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO AND IS
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. FURTHER NORTH IT IS BRINGING SOME EASTERLY WINDS TO
SOUTHERN LA COUNTY. THERE IS A LARGE MASS OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOME BEACHES THERE MAY HAVE LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AN EDDY MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE LA SOUTH
COAST AS WELL. THE GRADIENTS WILL ACTUALLY BE ONSHORE THIS
MORNING AND WILL TURN MODERATELY ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING AN EARLIER AND STRONGER SEA BREEZE TO THE AREA. HGTS
WILL ONLY BE AROUND 570 DAM AND THIS ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A 10 TO 15 DEGREE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE CSTS AND
VLYS. THE LACK OF COOL AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SAN JOAQUIN VLY WILL
ALLOW FOR A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.
THE ONSHORE FLOW PEAKS ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A DECENT EDDY. THIS
SHOULD CREATE A DEEP MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK THAT WILL COVER THE
COASTS AND MANY OF THE VLYS. ITS LIKELY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO
MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR OF SLO COUNTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT 7. LOOK FOR 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL COOLING.
THIS WILL BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN TO 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
CSTS AND VLYS. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL. THE
INTERIOR, HOWEVER, WILL END UP MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S, WHICH IS 4
TO 8 DEGREES OVER NORMAL.
JUST AS FAST AS IT COOLED DOWN IT WILL WARM UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE E PAC HIGH WILL SET UP AND A RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO SRN
CA. MORE IMPORTANTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND WILL SET UP ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE FLOW (THIS
TIME IT WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY). THE OFFSHORE PUSH SHOULD LIMIT
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO ONLY THE LA SOUTH COAST. IT WILL ALSO
BRING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. HGTS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 582 DAM AND THIS INCREASE
ALONG WITH THE SWITCH TO OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING 8 TO 12 DEGREES
OF WARMING TO THE AREA (4 TO 8 DEGREES FOR THE FAR INTERIOR). LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE CSTS AND LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VLYS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
09/235 AM.
THE WARM UP REALLY KICKS INTO GEAR ON THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
PEAKS (ABOUT 2 MB FROM THE EAST AND 6 MB FROM THE NORTH). HGTS
JUMP TO 588 DAM AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THESE TWO ITEMS UNDER
SUNNY SKIES WILL CREATE 4 TO 12 DEGREES OF WARMING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES, THE 80S ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CSTS, AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE VLYS.
THESE MAX TEMPS ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES OVER NORMAL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT THE TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER AND WILL REACH
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE STRONG NORTH FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND SBA SOUTH COAST.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS SOME ON FRIDAY - ENOUGH TO LOWER THE
MORNING OFFSHORE WINDS SOME, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPS, WHICH
WILL END UP VERY CLOSE TO THRUSDAY'S VERY WARM VALUES.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN WHILE THE OFFSHORE
FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN AND THE ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST
WILL INCREASE. LOOK FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY WITH
MAX TEMPS REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS
POTENTIALLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
BOTH AI-EC AND AI-GFS ARE DRY THROUGH THE 22ND OF THE MONTH. THE
AI-GFS IS DRY ON THE 23RD BUT THE AI-EC DOES BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THE 23RD.
AVIATION
09/1044Z.
AROUND 0745Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1100 FEET DEEP AT
KLAX. THE TOP OF THE MARINE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1700 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE AROUND 18 DEGREES CELSIUS. THERE WAS ANOTHER INVERSION
ABOVE UP TO AROUND 3000 FEET.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THERE IS A HIGH TO LIKELY CHANCE OF
VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z, THEN
VFR CONDITIONS WILL VERY LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH 18Z. A RETURN OF
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
MUCH LARGER EXTENT, SPREADING INTO VALLEY TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z TUESDAY.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FORM AND
DISSIPATE RANDOMLY THROUGH 16Z ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT AFTER 18Z. THERE IS
A HIGH TO LIKELY CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS
SOON AS 02Z TUESDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
16Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT THROUGH AT
LEAST 02Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS SOON
AS 02Z TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE BY 07Z TUESDAY,
AND A 70 PERCENT CHANCE AFTER 13Z TUESDAY. EAST WINDS GREATER THAN
7 KNOTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT 16Z.
KBUR...THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
16Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT THROUGH AT
LEAST 08Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS
SOON AS 08Z TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE BY 10Z
TUESDAY, AND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE AFTER 13Z TUESDAY. NO WIND
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOUTHWEST CROSS WINDS GUSTING TO GREATER THAN 10 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z.
MARINE
09/344 AM.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, MARGINAL SCA SOUTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY FROM THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL INTO
THE ANACAPA PASSAGE AND THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVEL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A MODERATE (30-40 PERCENT) CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SANTA
MONICA BAY AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, MARGINAL SCA
LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR BEYOND 30 NM OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL COAST
TO AROUND POINT CONCEPTION AND SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP FROM EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A MODERATE TO
HIGH (30-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE WATERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, HIGHEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...RM/GOMBERG/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page