411
FXUS66 KLOX 100958
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
258 AM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
10/115 AM.
MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WARM
UP IS EXPECTED TO START ON WEDNESDAY, LIKELY LASTING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
10/249 AM.
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RETURNED WITH GRADIENTS NOW WELL INTO THE
POSITIVE TERRITORY AT AROUND 3.5MB TO THE EAST AND 2MB TO THE
NORTH. AND THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNS OVER THE AREA STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND GRADIENTS TURN OFFSHORE AGAIN THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. SO ONE MORE DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE HEAT
RETURNS, BUT THIS TIME EVEN WARMER THAN THIS LAST WEEKEND. AS
GRADIENTS START TO SWITCH BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, STRONGEST THROUGH THE I5 CORRIDOR REGION BUT ALSO GUSTY
ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER OVER TO THE NORTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, RESULTING IN POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
THE SANTA LUCIAS, AND BREEZY BUT LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE USUAL SANTA ANA FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AS WELL LEADING
TO A SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S FOR ALL COAST AND
VALLEYS AND EVEN ISOLATED AREAS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 100 DEGREES
WHICH WOULD BE 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE NUMEROUS BROKEN DAILY RECORDS AREA-WIDE AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY EVEN BREAK THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF
MARCH. MANY, IF NOT ALL COAST/VALLEY AREAS WILL BE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
10/247 AM.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN WHILE THE
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN AND THE ONSHORE PUSH TO
THE EAST WILL INCREASE. LOOK FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING
EACH DAY WITH MAX TEMPS STILL 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
STILL MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS.
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
REBUILDING AGAIN NEXT WEEK AND LASTING POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN AN UNPRECEDENTED STRETCH OF MODERATE TO
EXTREME HEAT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. HIGHS ALL WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S WITH A 20-30% CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED 100 IN THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
ANY DAILY OR MONTHLY RECORDS SET BEFORE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
BROKEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
THE ONE SAVING GRACE IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BUT AT
LEAST THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT RELIEF.
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF ANY RAIN FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
AVIATION
10/0856Z.
AROUND 07Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1100 FEET DEEP AT
KLAX. THE TOP OF THE MARINE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1700 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE AROUND 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT COASTAL AND VALLEY
TERMINALS THROUGH AT 16Z, POSSIBLY LINGERING AT COASTAL TERMINALS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT
NO CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION, HIGHEST AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS AND KOXR.
AN EARLY RETURN OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
KLAX...IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS SOON AS
11Z, OR AS LATE AS 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS
20Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AROUND 22Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT KLAX WILL NOT CLEAR AT ALL. A RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR AS SOON AS 01Z, OR AS LATE AS 06Z. ANY EASTERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.
KBUR...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z, AND CLEARING BY 18Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT 05Z WEDNESDAY. IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE INTO KBUR BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
10/156 AM.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 30 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE OF
THE CENTRAL COAST DOWN PAST POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, MORE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A
HIGH TO LIKELY (40-60 PERCENT) CHANCE THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, WITH
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS A LOW TO MODERATE (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS EACH NIGHT BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A LOW TO
MODERATE (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SANTA
MONICA BAY AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL, AND IN THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 352-353-376>378-381. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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