256
FXUS66 KLOX 102119
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
219 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
10/219 PM.
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO START ON WEDNESDAY, LIKELY
LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
10/217 PM.
ENJOY THE LAST DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES AS WE LIKELY ENTER INTO
WHAT MAY BE AN EXTREMELY RARE PROLONGED (6-10 DAYS) MARCH
HEATWAVE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH HEAT IMPACTS LIKELY AT TIMES
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK! A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS LIKELY NEEDED SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AS WELL LEADING
TO WHAT MAY BE JUST THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S FOR ALL COAST AND VALLEYS AND EVEN
ISOLATED AREAS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 100 DEGREES WHICH WOULD BE 20-30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NUMEROUS
BROKEN DAILY RECORDS AREA- WIDE AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN BREAK
THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.
WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN THE
HEAT BY PUSHING THE MARINE LAYER NEAR IF NOT OFFSHORE. THERE IS A
30-50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS NOT STRONG OR
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE MARINE LAYER COMPLETELY FROM
COASTAL AREAS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS RIGHT NEAR THE
COAST ONLY IN THE 60S AND 70S. EITHER WAY DENSE FOG COULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE MARINE LAYER RETREAT, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ABOVE AND INLAND OF THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
MAKING A RUN TOWARDS PRONE COASTAL VALLEY AREAS INTO THURSDAY, BUT
THOSE WILL PROBABLY FALL SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
10/219 PM.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN WHILE THE
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN AND THE ONSHORE PUSH TO
THE EAST WILL INCREASE. LOOK FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING
EACH DAY WITH MAX TEMPS STILL 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
STILL MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS.
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
REBUILDING AGAIN NEXT WEEK AND LASTING POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN AN UNPRECEDENTED STRETCH OF MODERATE TO
EXTREME HEAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. HIGHS ALL WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED 100 IN THE WARMER
VALLEY AREAS. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT ANY DAILY OR MONTHLY RECORDS SET
BEFORE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE BROKEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
THE ONE SAVING GRACE IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT RELIEF.
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF ANY RAIN FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
AVIATION
10/0856Z.
AROUND 07Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1100 FEET DEEP AT
KLAX. THE TOP OF THE MARINE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1700 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE AROUND 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT COASTAL AND VALLEY
TERMINALS THROUGH AT 16Z, POSSIBLY LINGERING AT COASTAL TERMINALS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT
NO CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION, HIGHEST AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS AND KOXR.
AN EARLY RETURN OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
KLAX...IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS SOON AS
11Z, OR AS LATE AS 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS
20Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AROUND 22Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT KLAX WILL NOT CLEAR AT ALL. A RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR AS SOON AS 01Z, OR AS LATE AS 06Z. ANY EASTERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.
KBUR...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z, AND CLEARING BY 18Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT 05Z WEDNESDAY. IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE INTO KBUR BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
10/203 PM.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 30 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE OF
THE CENTRAL COAST DOWN PAST POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, MORE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A
HIGH TO LIKELY (40-60 PERCENT) CHANCE THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, WITH
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS A LOW TO MODERATE (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS EACH NIGHT BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A LOW TO
MODERATE (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SANTA
MONICA BAY AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL, AND IN THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL.
DENSE FOG MAY BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WEDNESAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 88-340>342-346>352-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 352-353-376>378-381. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RM/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...RM/HALL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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