843
FXUS66 KLOX 111528
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
828 AM PDT WED MAR 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
11/209 AM.
A SIGNIFICANT AND LONG LASTING HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION STARTING THURSDAY AND EXTEND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH HEAT IMPACTS LIKELY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
11/818 AM.
***UPDATE***
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY STRATUS/FOG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST. CURRENT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES MARINE INVERSION IN
THE 500-900 FOOT RANGE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, GUSTING 25 TO
40 MPH, ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED. SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH
THE DAY, ONCE THE PATCHY STRATUS DISSIPATES. CURRENT GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMISH THROUGH THE
DAY. SO, WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MORNING TEMP STUDY DATA INDICATES TODAY
THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE 6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
OVERALL, CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING WINDS. SO, NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
SUITE, ATTENTION REMAINS ON POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING HEAT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN EVEN MORE HEAT NEXT WEEK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
MARINE LAYER STRATUS COVERAGE DEFINITELY LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS BUT NOT ENTIRELY GONE YET. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE IN THAT DIRECTION UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER EVERYWHERE BY 4-8
DEGREES BUT THE BIGGEST DAY TO DAY CHANGE WILL BE THURSDAY WHEN
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST PEAKS AROUND 5MB. DESPITE THE POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING, THE COMBINATION OF 500MB
HEIGHTS NEAR 590DAM, THICKNESSES NEAR 575DAM, THE OFFSHORE FLOW,
AND 950 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS BY AFTERNOON, ROUGHLY 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST MANY OF THE
OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING DAILY
RECORDS, AND SOME MAY BREAK THEM BY 3 OR MORE DEGREES. THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE UNDER 15KT SO SANTA ANA WINDS
SHOULD MOSTLY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
A VERY SIMILAR DAY FRIDAY BUT WITH SOME COMPETING FACTORS. IT WILL
HEAT UP QUICK DUE TO THE LINGERING OFFSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS
THE DAY BEFORE BUT GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY
LEADING TO AN EARLIER ARRIVING SEA BREEZE. THIS PROBABLY WON'T
IMPACT INLAND AREAS BUT AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY TOP OUT
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY. IN ANY CASE, DAILY RECORDS
STAND A STRONG CHANGE TO BE BROKEN FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT DAY AS
RECORDS FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IN
GENERAL BUT COULD BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW
THICK THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE. EITHER WAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
11/359 AM.
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE AND THE LONG DURATION HEAT WAVE
STRETCHES INTO ITS SECOND WEEK. AFTER A MINOR DROP IN TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS, ANOTHER STRONG
HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA STARTING MONDAY WITH THICKNESSES
TOPPING OUT AROUND 579DAM WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS WEEK BUT ENOUGH TO DELAY THE
ARRIVAL OF ANY COOLING SEA BREEZES UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MORE DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED EACH DAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS. MAY EVEN START
BREAKING MONTHLY TEMPERATURE RECORDS. IN ADDITION, THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY MAY BREAK A RECORD NEXT WEEK FOR THE EARLIEST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN THE CALENDAR YEAR.
GIVEN THE UNPRECEDENTED LENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS EXTREME HEAT
WAVE, HEAT STRESS WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT AREN'T USED TO THE HEAT, LIKE THE COASTAL AREAS, WHERE
PEOPLE MAY NOT HAVE METHODS TO COOL OFF THEIR HOMES. TRY TO
COMPLETE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EARLY IN THE DAY OR IN THE EVENING,
AND DON'T LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN CARS.
THERE STILL ARE NO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
(MAR 22).
AVIATION
11/1038Z.
AROUND 0715Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP AT
KLAX.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR VALLEY AND DESERT TERMINALS. LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A HIGH TO LIKELY CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT COASTAL AND VALLEY
TERMINALS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.
KLAX...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z. IF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP, THE
CLEARING TIME SHOULD BE AROUND 17Z. ANY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z
THURSDAY.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
BETWEEN 02Z AND 16Z THURSDAY.
MARINE
11/822 AM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 30 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL COAST TO POINT CONCEPTION TO NORTHWEST OF
SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A 50-70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE TO
HIGH (40-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING, THERE IS A MODERATE
(40 PERCENT) CHANCE OF LOCAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FOR THE WATERS
PAST 30 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE NORTH OF POINT SAL, WITH NEAR SCA
LEVEL SEAS RETURNING ONCE AGAIN.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A MODERATE
(30-40 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE SANTA MONICA BAY AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL, AND IN THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN POINT MUGU TO PACIFIC PALISADES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 88-340>342-346>352-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 352-353-376>378-381. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/THOMPSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...RM/KL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page