018
FXUS66 KLOX 112024
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
124 PM PDT WED MAR 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
11/209 AM.
A SIGNIFICANT AND LONG LASTING HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION STARTING THURSDAY AND EXTEND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH HEAT IMPACTS LIKELY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
11/122 PM.
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT/THURSDAY THEN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE SHORT TERM, MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT AND THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW,
THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE INFLUENCE TO SPEAK OF THROUGH
FRIDAY. SO, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. AT THIS TIME,
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AREA-WIDE. HOWEVER ON FRIDAY,
THE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKLY RETURN WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHT COOLING FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN HOT AWAY FROM THE COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. ADDITIONALLY, OVERNIGHT LOW WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.
SO, GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
HEAT ACROSS THE AREA AND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS FROM SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY TO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY. ON SATURDAY, WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS, WHICH WILL COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH,
TO BRING 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE COASTS AND VALLEYS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS.
OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES, NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LIMITED, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS. AS FOR CLOUDS, VARYING AMOUNTS OF
HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VARYING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE COULD BE SOME
RETURN OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG TO THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
11/123 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD,
ONCE AGAIN, ACROSS THE AREA, PEAKING IN STRENGTH BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK DIURNAL FLOW IS EXPECTED.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT. AT THIS TIME, DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES, INDICATE VERY HOT CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK (PEAKING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY). ONCE AGAIN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS. SO, WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD-BREAKING DAILY TEMPERATURES.
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP, MONTHLY TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD
ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY. IN ADDITION, THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MAY BREAK A
RECORD NEXT WEEK FOR THE EARLIEST 90 DEGREE DAY IN THE CALENDAR
YEAR.
GIVEN THE UNPRECEDENTED LENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS EXTREME HEAT
WAVE, HEAT STRESS WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT AREN'T USED TO THE HEAT, LIKE THE COASTAL AREAS, WHERE
PEOPLE MAY NOT HAVE METHODS TO COOL OFF THEIR HOMES. TRY TO
COMPLETE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EARLY IN THE DAY OR IN THE EVENING,
AND DON'T LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN CARS.
AS FOR CHANCES OF ANY RAINFALL, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA THROUGH MARCH
26TH.
AVIATION
11/1742Z.
AT 1645Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2000 FEET
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3600 FEET WITH A
TEMP OF 20 DEG C.
HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. ANY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 7
KNOTS.
KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.
MARINE
11/1258 PM.
MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE OUTER
WATERS, THERE IS A 60% CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS ON FRI.
THERE IS THEN A 40%-50% CHANCE OF SCA WIND GUSTS AT TIMES SAT
THROUGH SUN OR SUN NIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE CONDS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR ALL THE OUTER WATERS FOR MON AND MON NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATER N OF POINT SAL, CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR A 50%
CHANCE OF SCA WIND GUSTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS S OF POINT CONCEPTION, CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A 20%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN POINT MUGU TO PACIFIC
PALISADES LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM
PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
88-340>342-346>352-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...RM/KL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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