928
FXUS66 KLOX 181553
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
853 AM PDT WED MAR 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
18/843 AM.
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALL WEEK. COASTAL
AREAS LIKELY PEAKED TUESDAY, WHILE VALLEY AND INTERIOR AREAS PEAK
THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE COASTAL FOG MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
18/852 AM.
***UPDATE***
ONSHORE TRENDS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3MB WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME
AMOUNT OF RELIEF TO COASTAL AREAS TODAY, BUT HOW MUCH IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY. THE 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE MAP SHOWS AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS EASTERN VENTURA COUNTY AND WESTERN LA
COUNTY, BUT ELSEWHERE TEMPS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR TODAY IS HIGHS IN
THE 80S NEAR THE COAST, AND 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND OTHER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. NOTE THAT DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO RECORDS WILL BE EASIER TO
REACH.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, THE DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. CAN'T SAY
TOO MUCH DIFFERENT IN THE SHORT TERM THAT HASN'T BEEN SAID THE
PAST FEW DAYS. VERY STRONG, RECORD BREAKING HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO INCH TO THE EAST THIS WEEK. WHILE TODAY WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE TRENDS, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE COASTAL
TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE A FEW DEGREES (BUT REMAINING NEAR THE
80S AND 90S), VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND
90-104 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF DANGEROUSLY
HIGH TEMPERATURES, AND CONTINUED WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVER MULTIPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A HIGH RISK OF HEAT
ILLNESS FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. THUS, EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND
HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY 8PM FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. IN GENERAL, DAILY RECORDS TODAY ARE
QUITE A BIT COOLER, SO MOST IF NOT ALL SITES, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WILL LIKELY BREAK RECORDS TODAY.
WHILE NOT IN THE FORECAST, PATCHES OF VERY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COAST, WITH INCREASING CHANCES EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY ONSHORE. THIS WOULD BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTS, BUT WOULD NOT AFFECT AREAS INLAND
DUE TO THE SHALLOWNESS OF ANY MARINE LAYER.
RECORD HIGHS FOR DOWNTOWN LA THIS WEEK ARE AS FOLLOWS:
TODAY: 87 IN 1997
THURSDAY: 97 IN 1997
FRIDAY: 93 IN 1997
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
18/243 AM.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO FLATTEN OUT, AND A SHALLOW SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. AS FOR THE HEAT, TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY
START TO DECREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. FOR SATURDAY, THERE IS A 50%
CHANCE THAT SOME HEAT PRODUCTS WILL NEED TO EXTENDED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, MAINLY INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HOWEVER BY
SUNDAY, THINGS SHOULD COOL DOWN RATHER NOTICEABLY. THEREFORE, NO
HEAT PRODUCTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ON MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN AGAIN, WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH EARLY WEEK, BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE WE ARE SEEING THIS
WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THE MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN
TO COASTAL AREAS EACH NIGHT AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT, AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, THE GFS AND EC DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE DRY
THROUGH THE 28TH, LOOKING AT THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES AND
ENSEMBLE AI PROJECTIONS, RAIN CHANCES WERE PUSHED BACK TO THE
29TH OR 30TH OF MARCH AT THE EARLIEST. EVEN THEN, PROJECTIONS ARE
STILL VERY LIGHT IN ACCUMULATIONS, AND NOT EVEN CLOSE TO
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
18/0946Z.
AROUND 0715Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX. THERE WAS
A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION UP TO AROUND 1300 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A VERY
LOW TO LOW CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z, AND A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER 08Z THURSDAY.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z, AND A
30 PERCENT CHANCE AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 08Z THURSDAY. ANY
EAST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO WIND
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
18/245 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE (30-40
PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EACH EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE,
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, THERE IS A
HIGH TO LIKELY (40-60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW TO MODERATE (20-30
PERCENT) CHANCE OF GALES.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, BECOMING
MORE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SHALLOW MARINE
INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES
38-87-340-341-343-344-346>350-354-355-362-366-367-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
38-87-343-344. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 88-342-345-351>353-356>358-368>376-378>380-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/LUND
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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