071
FXUS66 KLOX 190332
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
832 PM PDT WED MAR 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
18/410 PM.
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALL WEEK. COASTAL
AREAS LIKELY PEAKED TUESDAY, WHILE VALLEY AND INTERIOR AREAS PEAK
THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE COASTAL FOG MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
18/831 PM.
***UPDATE***
ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY. MOST CALENDAR DAY RECORDS WERE
BROKEN, WITH A FEW MARCH ALL-TIME RECORDS SET (PALMDALE,
LANCASTER, AND PASO ROBLES). THE HEAT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT ONE WRINKLE IS STARTING TO UNFOLD. A NARROW
BAND OF DENSE FOG, CURRENTLY OVER SAN DIEGO, IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD. THE SBA-SAN PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRENGTHENING (NOW AT
NEGATIVE 1.4 MILIBARS) WHICH IS AN INDICATION THAT THIS NORTHWARD
PUSH OF THE FOG WILL CONTINUE. WILL THAT FOG MAKE IT ALL THE WAY
INTO LA COUNTY, THAT IS ANYONES GUESS AS NONE OF THE MODELS
REMOTELY DEPICT THE CURRENT FOG WELL. IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN
NOT THAT THIS FOG WILL ENCROACH AT LEAST THE LONG BEACH AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. IF IT DOES, THE LA BEACH AREAS WILL SEE A MORE
NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THE INVERSION IS SO STRONG
HOWEVER THAT ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL AREAS, SO VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE ON ITS HOT
PATH. UPDATED TEMPERATURES WITH TODAYS REVELAED HIGHS IN MIND,
AND TO COOL SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS DOWN SOUTH. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A 2-3MB ONSHORE GRADIENT TREND TODAY RESULTED IN A 4-8 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP FROM YESTERDAY WITHIN ABOUT 5 MILES OF THE
COAST. THE LA/VENTURA VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL COAST WERE LITTLE
CHANGED AND THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WERE WARMER. THIS IS A
COMMON SCENARIO WHEN THERE IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUT
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING. SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENS AT THE
TAIL END OF A SANTA ANA EVENT WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
DIURNAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALSO LITTLE
CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT. UNLESS THERE IS MOVEMENT IN THOSE
PARAMETERS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO TODAY'S
LEVELS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY WERE ODDLY SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
THE SURROUNDING DAYS IN MANY LOCATIONS SO WHILE RECORDS WERE
EASIER TO ACHIEVE TODAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, GOING
FORWARD RECORDS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. MAY SEE SOME VERY SHALLOW
AND DENSE FOG AT THE BEACHES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE
LIKELY SATURDAY.
IN ANY CASE, RECORDS OR NOT, THE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY: VERY HOT
WITH TEMPERATURES 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT ADVISORIES AND
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AND SOME
INLAND HAZARDS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO
AZ/NM WHICH IN TURN WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND
POSSIBLE FOG NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS STILL 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
RECORD HIGHS FOR DOWNTOWN LA THIS WEEK ARE AS FOLLOWS:
THURSDAY: 97 IN 1997
FRIDAY: 93 IN 1997
SATURDAY: 93 IN 1931
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
18/218 PM.
AFTER THE 5-10 DEGREE DROP SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE
COASTAL FOG SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES BEGIN A VERY SLOW CLIMB
BACK UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS HOT AS THIS WEEK, BUT STILL 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH A LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF REACHING 100 IN THE
VALLEYS.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, THE GFS AND EC DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE DRY
THROUGH THE 28TH, LOOKING AT THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES AND
ENSEMBLE AI PROJECTIONS, RAIN CHANCES WERE PUSHED BACK TO THE
29TH OR 30TH OF MARCH AT THE EARLIEST. EVEN THEN, PROJECTIONS ARE
STILL VERY LIGHT IN ACCUMULATIONS, AND NOT EVEN CLOSE TO
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
18/2315Z.
AT 23Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THE SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION TOP WAS AT 1500 FT WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 29 C.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIFR FG AT KLGB (60%), KLAX (40%), KSMO (30%)
KOXR (20%), KCMA (10%), KSBA (20%), KSMX (10%) 10-17Z THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR LIFR FG INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
KLAX...THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF LIFR FG 10-17Z THURSDAY,
OTHERWISE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AND ANY EAST WINDS
STAYING UNDER 6 KNOTS. LIFR FOG CHANCES INCREASE FOR FRIDAY
MORNING.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.
MARINE
18/152 PM.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
EVENING THERE IS A MODERATE (30-40 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS. OVER THE
WEEKEND, SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS (WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANGE OF GALE FORCE WINDS), AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD
TO AROUND 10 FEET.
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES
38-87-340-341-343-344-346>350-354-355-362-366-367-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
38-87-343-344. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 88-342-345-351>353-356>358-368>376-378>380-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/RK
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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