118
FXUS66 KLOX 191727
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1027 AM PDT THU MAR 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
19/852 AM.
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALL WEEK. COASTAL
AREAS LIKELY PEAKED TUESDAY, WHILE VALLEY AND INTERIOR AREAS
CONTINUE TO PEAK THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE COASTAL FOG MAY IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
19/907 AM.
***UPDATE***
LIGHT ONSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
SOME MINOR COOLING NEAR THE COAST. MINIMAL COOLING, IF ANY,
INLAND AND HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG MOVED INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN CATALINA AND PALOS VERDES BUT SO FAR AS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE OCEAN. THERE'S AT LEAST AN 80% CHANCE THAT DENSE
FOG WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK, AT LEAST AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. TAKING A LOOK AT CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS OF 230AM, THERE IS A THIN LINE OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
STRETCHING FROM SAN DIEGO INTO L.A. COUNTY (AROUND PALOS VERDES),
WHILE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF
THE CENTRAL COAST FROM THE NORTH. WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? IF THE MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROLL INTO THE REGION AND SPREAD INTO THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN
FORECAST. WITH THE SBA TO SAN PRESSURE GRADIENT SITTING AROUND
NEGATIVE 2.1 MB, THERE IS A SUPPORT FOR THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
MOVING ALONG THE BEACH AREAS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IF THE LOW CLOUDS DO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD, IS THAT AREAS
AROUND LONG BEACH, AND MAYBE UP TO LAX AND SANTA MONICA MAY GET
LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN COULD MAKE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.
AS FOR VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS, THE INVERSION IS SO STRONG THAT ANY
NOTICEABLE COOLING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS,
MEANING HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE ON TRACK ACROSS THE VALLEYS
AND MOUNTAINS.
BESIDES THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD POTENTIAL BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING (HOWEVER MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING), FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIURNAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
THE MESSAGE CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME AS SAID PREVIOUSLY, (THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY): IT CONTINUES TO BE VERY HOT WITH TEMPERATURES
20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND SPANNING 90-106 DEGREES AWAY FROM
THE COAST AND 80S TO 90S AT THE COASTS. HEAT ADVISORIES AND
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AND SOME
INLAND HAZARDS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED.
ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A GOOD 5-10
DEGREES AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO AZ/NM WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLE FOG NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
RECORD HIGHS FOR DOWNTOWN LA THIS WEEK ARE AS FOLLOWS:
THURSDAY: 97 IN 1997
FRIDAY: 93 IN 1997
SATURDAY: 93 IN 1931
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
19/221 AM.
AFTER THE 5-10 DEGREE DROP SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE
COASTAL FOG SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO
INCREASE AGAIN STARTING MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE AS HOT AS THIS WEEK, BUT STILL
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF
REACHING 100 IN THE VALLEYS.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, THE GFS AND EC DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE DRY
THROUGH THE 28TH, LOOKING AT THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES AND
ENSEMBLE AI PROJECTIONS, RAIN CHANCES WERE PUSHED BACK TO THE
29TH OR 30TH OF MARCH AT THE EARLIEST. EVEN THEN, PROJECTIONS ARE
STILL VERY LIGHT IN ACCUMULATIONS, AND NOT EVEN CLOSE TO
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
19/1727Z.
AT 1648Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1000 FT DEEP, AND THE
INVERSION WAS UP TO 2800 FT WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 27 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KWJF, KPMD, KBUR, KVNY. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN OTHER SITES. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF VLIFR-IFR
CONDS FOR KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KSBA AND KCMA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z-16Z
FRI. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF VFR-MVFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT KOXR, KSMO, KLAX, AND KLGB.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE
OF 1/4-1/2 FG BKN002 SOMETIMES BETWEEN 05Z-17Z FRI. OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AND ANY EAST WINDS STAYING UNDER 6 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
19/958 AM.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
BRIEF SCA LEVEL WINDS FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL THIS
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SEAS WILL REACH 8-12 FEET, AND THERE IS A
LOW (15-25 PERCENT) CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS, HIGHEST FROM
AROUND POINT ARGUELLO SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES
38-87-340-341-343-344-346>350-354-355-362-366-367-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
38-87-343-344. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 88-342-345-351>353-356>358-368>376-378>380-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/LUND
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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