711
FXUS66 KLOX 201606
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
906 AM PDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
20/858 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
AREAS OF DENSE COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD AGAIN NEXT WEEK BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT AS THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
20/905 AM.
***UPDATE***
STATUS QUO TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, +/- 3 DEGREES OR SO. GRADIENTS ARE ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME
HEAT WARNINGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREES COOLER WHICH DROPS MOST
AREAS OUT OF HEAT HAZARD CONSIDERATION. BUT WILL SEE WHAT THE
12Z MODELS COME IN WITH AND MAKE A FINAL DECISION THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH AT THIS POINT WOULD SAY THAT CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN 90%
THAT ALL HEAT HAZARDS WILL END TODAY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
ONE LAST DAY OF EXTREME HEAT BEFORE SOME WEEKEND COOLING BRINGS
SOME RELIEF. A 595 DAM UPPER HIGH STRADDLING THE CA/AZ BORDER
WILL BRING 592 DAM HGTS AND 580 DAM THKNS TO THE AREA TODAY. BOTH
OF THESE VALUE HAVE NEVER BEEN SEEN IN MARCH BEFORE THIS EXTREME
HEAT EVENT. THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING AND THEN
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
FOLLOW A STANDARD DIURNAL CYCLE. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TODAY, SAVE
FOR A CHANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN THE LONG BEACH/TORRANCE
AREA. THE SEABREEZE WILL BRING 1 OR 2 DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE
CSTS AND VLYS TODAY, BUT NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE
EXTREME HEAT AND HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES COVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING 18 TO 28 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A MORE ROBUST MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND A WEAK EDDY SPINS UP. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BE SMOOSHED SO LOW THAT ANYWHERE LOW CLOUDS FORM THEY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DENSE FOG. THE STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH AND THE
COOLING MARINE LAYER WILL COMBINE TO BRING 4 TO 8 LOCALLY 10
DEGREES OF COOLING TO ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL END
UP "ONLY" 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST VLYS
SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. EVEN THOUGH THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THEY DO NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT HEAT THREAT AND
NO ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED.
THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN ON SUNDAY AS SOME ENERGY COMES IN
FROM THE WEST. HGTS FALL TO 582 DAM. OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS FROM
THE NORTH AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS. THE
LOWERING HGTS WILL RAISE THE MARINE LAYER AND ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE AREA WILL COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BUT SOME
AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO NORTH WINDS WILL SEE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
20/300 AM.
THE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF MONDAY AND PERSISTED
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BRAKING DOWN ON THURSDAY. HGTS WILL MOSTLY
BE AROUND 588 DAM THROUGH WED. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL
CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SOME OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE MORNINGS BUT THE
EAST PUSH WILL HELP LIMIT THE WARMING, ESP NEAR THE COAST. MDLS DO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE OCNL BOUTS OF MORNING STRATUS AND
DENSE FOG. LOOK FOR 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF WARMING MONDAY AND 1 TO 2
ADDITIONAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL THEN CHANGE LITTLE
ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 22 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE CSTS AND
VLYS. DURING THIS TIME MAX TEMPS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE CSTS AND IN THE 90S IN THE VLYS.
THERE WILL BE SOME, BUT NOT MUCH COOLING ON THURSDAY.
BOTH AI MDLS DO NOT SHOW ANY CHC OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH. BOTH MDLS DO, HOWEVER, SHOW RAIN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MONTH - ESP THE GFS-AI.
AVIATION
20/1510Z.
AT 1500Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPRB, KBUR. KVNY, KPMD AND
KWJF. FOR COASTAL SITES, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT IN DEVELOPMENT/TIMING OF
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
KLAX...OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THROUGH THIS
EVENING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS. FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING (COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF
CURRENT FORECASTS). NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
20/810 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
A 20-30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE IS
A 40-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES
38-87-340-341-343-344-346>350-354-355-362-366-367-549-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
38-87-343-344. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 88-342-345-351>353-356>358-368>376-378>380-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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