112
FXUS66 KLOX 210952
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
252 AM PDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
20/1124 PM.
DESPITE NOTICEABLE COOLING TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS OF DENSE COASTAL FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS THE
WEEKEND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD AGAIN NEXT WEEK
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT AS THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
21/243 AM.
THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT TODAY AS SOME ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THERE WILL BE ONSHORE (ALBEIT
WEAK) FLOW BOTH TO THE EAST AND NORTH. ALL MDLS ARE FORECASTING
THAT A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK WILL FORM TOWARDS DAWN, BUT
NOT SURE THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN AS SKIES ARE VERY CLEAR RIGHT
NOW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE BIG NEWS IS THAT THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND FALLING HGTS WILL LEAD TO 8 TO 12 DEGREES OF
COOLING. EVEN WITH THIS VERY NOTICEABLE COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL
STILL END UP 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STILL THIS COOLING IS
ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING AND
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHC OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ESP SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. THE FALLING HGTS SHOULD LIFT THE MARINE LAYER ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
HGTS FALL TO 581 DAM ON SUNDAY BUT SOME OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTH DEVELOPS. THIS WILL NOT ONLY CHASE AWAY THE LOW CLOUDS BY
MID MORNING BUT IT WILL ALSO CREATE POCKETS OF WARMING. WHILE MOST
AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING THE SBA SOUTH COAST
WILL SEE 5 OR SO DEGREES OF WARMING DUE TO THE NORTH FLOW OFF OF
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. SUNDAY'S MAX TEMPS WILL END UP 12 TO 18
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO REASSERT ITSELF ON MONDAY WITH HGTS RISE
TO 588 DAM. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST CONTINUE, BUT THE
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN. THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS IN THE MORNING NEAR LONG BEACH BUT
ASIDE FROM THAT SKIES WILL BE SUNNY. MAX TEMPS WILL RESPOND BY
WARMING 2 TO 4 DEGREES. THE CSTS WILL END UP MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND
THE VLYS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT SOME HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT MORE LIKELY THEY WONT
BE NEEDED UNTIL TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
21/251 AM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE VERY WARM DAYS, BUT WILL NOT BE
RECORD BREAKING LIKE LAST WEEK'S. THE UPPER HIGH WILL NOT BE
OVERHEAD AND HGTS WILL BE A FEW DAM LOWER. ADDITIONALLY WHILE
THERE WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL BE ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 80S AND 90S OR 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES
IN THE VLYS BUT NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED.
THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME ON FRIDAY AND THE ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST
INCREASES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE
CSTS AND 1 TO 3 DEGREES IN THE VLYS.
THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REST OF THE MONTH WILL BE
DRY. THE AI-MDLS STILL SHOW SOME CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AT THE
BEGINNINGOF APRIL.
AVIATION
21/0952Z.
AT 0855Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 400 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 29 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KBUR. KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR REMAINING SITES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF NO LOW
CLOUDS. IF LOW CLOUDS DO ARRIVE THEY COULD ANY TIME FROM 12Z-15Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IF LOW CLOUDS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL CREATE
VLIFR CONDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF MVFR VIS LASTING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF NO LOW
CLOUDS. LOW CLOUD ARRIVAL COULD BE ANYTIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF RVR 0400 CONDS WITH THE LOW CLOUDS.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVED CONDS BY 1730Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHC OF 4SM HZ CONDS LASTING TIL 22Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVOK TAF.
MARINE
21/139 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND/OR SEAS. GALE WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PZZ670 IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THRU
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN INNER
WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU AFOREMENTIONED
PERIOD.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM
PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
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