485
FXUS66 KLOX 220334
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
834 PM PDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
21/829 PM.
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK,
LIKELY WARMEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT
SOME COASTAL AREAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL AFFECT SOME AREAS BY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
21/831 PM.
***UPDATE***
LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG HAVE PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL AREAS THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MIGHT BE
NEEDED, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE CURRENT VISIBILITIES ARE JUST
ABOVE WHAT IS NEEDED AND THE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MAKES IT REALLY
HARD TO TRACK ON SATELLITE. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AT THE
COAST BECAUSE THIS FOG WILL LIKELY HUG THE COAST THROUGH THE
MORNING IF NOT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
TEMPERATURES DROPPED 5-10 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENED WHICH ALLOWED ONSHORE FLOW TO PUSH IN
EARLIER AND STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE ONSHORE PUSH ALSO
BROUGHT WITH IT VERY DENSE COASTAL FOG WITH VISIBILITIES A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS RIGHT AT THE BEACHES.
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH FOG AT THE BEACHES AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S INLAND WITH AN ISOLATED 90 IN THE WARMEST AREAS.
ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND PEAK TUE/WED.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTH/SOUTH GRADIENTS NEXT WEEK BY AROUND 50% WHICH IN THEORY
SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE FORECAST GRADIENTS WERE NOT AVAILABLE AND IT'S
POSSIBLE THE MAJORITY OF THOSE ARE STILL FAVORING A STRONGER
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS. SO THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE. ALSO, NBM APPEARS TO BE ON BOARD WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD AT LEAST
PUSH HIGHS THERE INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
STARTING ON MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO GIVE STRONG CONSIDERATION TO
HEAT ADVISORIES THERE AND CAN'T YET RULE THAT OUT FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF PT CONCEPTION AS WELL.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
21/144 PM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE VERY WARM DAYS, BUT WILL NOT BE
RECORD BREAKING LIKE LAST WEEK'S. THE UPPER HIGH WILL NOT BE
OVERHEAD AND HGTS WILL BE A FEW DAM LOWER. ADDITIONALLY WHILE
THERE WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL BE ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 80S AND 90S OR 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES
IN THE VLYS BUT NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED.
THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME ON FRIDAY AND THE ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST
INCREASES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE
CSTS AND 1 TO 3 DEGREES IN THE VLYS.
THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REST OF THE MONTH WILL BE
DRY. THE AI-MDLS STILL SHOW SOME CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AT THE
BEGINNINGOF APRIL.
AVIATION
22/0000Z.
AT 2248Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 400 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 C.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. HAVE MOVED
ARRIVAL TIMES OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS UP BY FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. TIMING OF FLIGHT CHANGES COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS FROM
CURRENT FORECAST.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. GENERALLY EXPECTING LIFR TO IFR
CONDS THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY (002-006 WITH 1/2SM-2SM VSBYS).
NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.
MARINE
21/833 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. FOR TONIGHT,
THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS PZZ670.
GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF GALES. LIKELY TO BE
FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON THRU OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME, AND ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE
IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN INNER
WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, FOCUSED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY,
FOCUSED ACROSS THE WATERS INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT.
VISIBILITIES OF ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RK
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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