688
FXUS66 KLOX 221021
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
321 AM PDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
21/1137 PM.
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK,
LIKELY WARMEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT
SOME COASTAL AREAS TODAY AND MONDAY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
AFFECT SOME AREAS BY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
22/1204 AM.
THE MARINE LAYER IS A LITTLE DEEP TODAY (ABOUT 1000 FT) THIS WILL
ALLOW A LITTLE BETTER COASTAL COVERAGE AND WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT
OF DENSE FOG. FLAT FLOW WITH 584 DAM HGTS ARE OVERHEAD. AT THE SFC
THERE WILL BE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST WHILE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NORTH. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS QUITE
STRONG SO WHILE THERE WILL BE GOOD CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ONLY RETREAT TO A A MILE OR SO OFF THE SHORE.
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WILL KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY
CLOUD FREE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY XCP FOR THE SBA SOUTH
CST WHERE NORTH FLOW OFF OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WILL BRING 2 TO 4
DEGREES OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. THE INTERIOR OF SLO AND SBA WILL
LOWER A FEW DEGREES AS COOL AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE SAN JOAQUIN
VLY. DESPITE ALL THE COOLING YDY AND LITTLE CHANGE TODAY, TODAY'S
MAX TEMPS WILL END UP 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY BRING AN EARLY
RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE CSTS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION.
BUILDING HGTS WILL SMOOSH THE MARINE LAYER SOME AND THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE SOME DENSE FOG.
A LITTLE STRONGER OFFSHORE PUSH FROM THE NORTH WILL BEING FASTER
MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLEARING IN THE MORNING. THE E PAC UPPER HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF AND HGTS WILL CLIMB TO 586 DAM. THIS
WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER WARMING TREND OF 4 TO 8 DEGREES FOR THE CSTS
AND VLYS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW NORTH OF
PT CONCEPTION WILL RESULT IN 8 TO 12 DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CSTS
AND THE LOWER 90S IN THE VLYS. THE CSTS AND CSTL VLYS OF SBA
COUNTY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY NUMBERS.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY AS HGTS RISE TO 588 DAM. THIS
WILL NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS HOT AS LAST WEAK AS THE HGTS ARE
LOWER AND THERE IS ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO
RISE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WHICH WILL BRING SOME 90 OR 91 DEGREE READINGS
TO INTERIOR CSTL SECTIONS. THESE NUMBERS ARE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH JUST A DEGREE OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL WARMING NEEDED FOR
ADVISORIES.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
22/309 AM.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE VERY WARM DAYS, BUT WILL NOT BE
RECORD BREAKING LIKE LAST WEEK'S. THE UPPER HIGH WILL NOT BE
OVERHEAD AND HGTS WILL BE A FEW DAM LOWER. ADDITIONALLY WHILE
THERE WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL BE ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 80S AND 90S OR 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES
IN SOME OF THE VLYS BUT NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED.
THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THE ONSHORE PUSH TO
THE EAST INCREASES. THERE IS A DECENT CHC THAT THE MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL REFORM AS AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING 3 TO 5
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE CSTS AND 1 TO 3 DEGREES IN THE VLYS.
EVEN WITH THIS COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE 12 TO 18 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.
THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REST OF THE MONTH WILL BE
DRY. THE AI-MDLS (ESP THE EC-AI)STILL SHOW SOME CHC OF RAIN AT
THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.
***OF NOTE***
THIS HAS BE A PHENOMENALLY WARM MONTH. USING THE FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR DTLA FOR TODAY TO THE 31ST ALONG WITH THE MAX
TEMPS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED DTLA AVERAGE MAX TEMP FOR THE
MONTH WOULD BE 83.9 DEGREES. THIS WOULD HANDILY ECLIPSE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD HOLDERS:
79.1 DEGREES IN 2015
76.7 DEGREES IN 2017
76.0 DEGREES IN 1931
75.8 DEGREES IN 1934
75.7 DEGREES IN 1959
AVIATION
22/1015Z.
AT 0837Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 C.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR VLY AND INLAND TAFS AS WELL AS KSBP
AND KSMX.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. CIG HGTS COULD BE OFF BY AS
MUCH AS 300 FT. CLEARING TIMES COULD BE OFF BY 2 HOURS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
OVC010 CIGS BY 1330Z. CLEARING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL 19Z (25 PERCENT
CHC) OR 20Z (10 PERCENT CHC). LOW CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
03Z THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.
MARINE
21/833 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. FOR TONIGHT,
THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS PZZ670.
GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF GALES. LIKELY TO BE
FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON THRU OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME, AND ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE
IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN INNER
WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, FOCUSED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY,
FOCUSED ACROSS THE WATERS INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT.
VISIBILITIES OF ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
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