845
FXUS66 KLOX 230318
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
818 PM PDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
22/753 PM.
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK, PEAKING ON TUESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT SOME COASTAL AREAS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING. ALSO, THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
22/815 PM.
***UPDATE***
AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL WEEKEND, A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION, BECOMING OVER SW CALIFORNIA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT FURTHER EAST TO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
THE SO CAL BIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. HIGHS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS (AND
DOWN TO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST) WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 25
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY (SUNDAY). FOR LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE WARMING BETWEEN AROUND 5 TO 15
DEGREES. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, LITTLE CHANGE TO SLIGHT COOLING
IS EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, WITH A BIT
OF COOLING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE WESTERN ANTELOPE
VALLEY FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH. GUSTY WEST TO NORTH
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR NEAR-COASTAL AREAS
FROM THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SOUTHWARD, WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE NIGHT TO MORNING HOURS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE SHORT TERM, TWO MAIN ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES
AND WIND. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOOKING AT THE HEAT RISK, WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEAT RISK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN MORE LOCALIZED SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SO,
WILL ISSUE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OF VENTURA/LA COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
22/156 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE AREA IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST WITH SOME WEAK
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE EXTENDED, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 18
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUNDAY, WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
COOLING IS EXPECTED, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN AT LEAST
6-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKING AT THE HEAT RISK, DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY NEED FOR HEAT PRODUCTS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AS FOR CLOUDS AND WEATHER, SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING OVERHEAD. WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COOLING ON SUNDAY.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR COASTAL AREAS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
ANTICIPATE THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE,
AFFECTING MOST COASTAL AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS.
AS FOR RAIN, THINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. HOWEVER
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL, MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT, INDICATING
THE RETURN OF SOME RAIN. AT THIS TIME, ECMWF ENSEMBLES INDICATE A
40-60% CHANCE OF RAIN TOTALS GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES THE FIRST
WEEK OF APRIL WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A 20-40% CHANCE OF
0.50 INCH TOTALS OR GREATER. THE CHANCES FOR TOTALS GREATER THAN
ONE INCH ARE LESS THAN 20% ON ALL MODELS.
***OF NOTE***
THIS HAS BE A PHENOMENALLY WARM MONTH. USING THE FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR DTLA FOR TODAY TO THE 31ST ALONG WITH THE MAX
TEMPS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED DTLA AVERAGE MAX TEMP FOR THE
MONTH WOULD BE 83.9 DEGREES. THIS WOULD HANDILY ECLIPSE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD HOLDERS:
79.1 DEGREES IN 2015
76.7 DEGREES IN 2017
76.0 DEGREES IN 1931
75.8 DEGREES IN 1934
75.7 DEGREES IN 1959
AVIATION
23/0150Z.
AT 0108Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL TAFS SBA AND SOUTH INCLUDING
KLAX, LIFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT
BETWEEN 00Z-12Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR KBUR, KVNY, AND KSMX WITH A 30-50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AT LEAST BRIEF IFR OR LOWER CIGS VSBYS 08Z-16Z MON.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORCEAST WITH A 40% CHANCE OF
1/4-2SM VSBY POSSIBLE FROM 02-017Z MON. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF BETWEEN 12-17Z WITH NEARLY EQUAL
CHANCES OF IFR OR LOWER OR VFR CONDS.
MARINE
22/116 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. FOR
WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF GALES. LIKELY TO BE
FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON THRU OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME, AND ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS. LARGE SEAS OF 10-14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE
IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN INNER
WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, FOCUSED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK, FOCUSED IN THE LATE EVENING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING IT
APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY FOCUSED INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BIGHT. VISIBILITIES OF ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR ZONES 340>342-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR ZONES 378-381. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/CILIBERTI
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...RM/GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page