422
FXUS66 KLOX 241550
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
850 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
24/836 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY AND ACROSS ALL VALLEYS AND INTERIOR AREAS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY A STUBBORN MARINE LAYER THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO WARM UP THOSE AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
24/849 AM.
***UPDATE***
OUR FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY OCCUPIES SEVERAL DIFFERING WEATHER
REGIMES SO THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED THAN USUAL.
THE CENTRAL COAST IS STILL BEING INFLUENCED BUY A MODERATE
NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW. YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE 80S
AND 90S AND EXPECTING THAT AGAIN TODAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW THERE
WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW BRINGING AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING.
HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER OFFSHORE PUSH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS ONE, HOWEVER, ISN'T QUITE AS WARM SO TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP BUT LIKELY NOT AS HOT AS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION CONTINUE TO BE MIRED IN A
1500' MARINE LAYER WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY THURSDAY AS WELL, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES THERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S OR LOWER 80S. INLAND AREAS
WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH MINIMAL IF ANY MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S, A SOLID 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SORT OF AN AUGUST LIKE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE VLYS
AND THE INTERIOR WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE CSTS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH PLENTY OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE DECENT OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH A
BRIEF INTERRUPTION WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AND DRY TROF MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTER OF THE STATE. HGTS WILL BE NEAR 586 DAM TODAY, FALLING
TO 580 DAM WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF AND THEN REBOUNDING TO 584 DAM
ON THURSDAY. SFC GRADS IN THE E/W DIRECTION WILL CYCLE BETWEEN
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE N/S GRADIENTS WILL VARY BETWEEN WEAK OFFSHORE IN
THE AM AND WEAK ONSHORE IN THE PM.
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 1200 FT DEEP WITH A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION THIS WILL SLOW CLEARING AND THE MODERATE ONSHORE PUSH
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS BACK IN THE EARLY
EVENING. OVERNIGHT A WEAK EDDY WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
LOWER VLYS AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. THIS NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS PATTER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAYBE A
LITTLE COOLER OVER THE CSTS AND VLYS AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR THE
INTERIOR. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THE
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE OFFSHORE
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WILL END WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL
BRING 8 TO 12 DEGREE OF COOLING TO THE AREA AND THE HEAT THREAT
WILL END. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE. MAX TEMPS
REMAIN MANY DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE CSTS. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL WARM THE CSTS/VLYS BY 2
TO 4 DEGREES. THE FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE SAN
JOAQUIN VLY AND COOL THE INTERIOR BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
24/217 AM.
SRN CA WILL BE UNDER GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SW FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HGTS WILL SLOWLY FALL FROM 582 DAM FRIDAY TO 568 DAM ON
MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THE GRADIENTS WILL
NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI AND SAT BUT WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE
ONSHORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BETTER VLY PENETRATION ON SUN AND MON.
MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM SOME ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THIS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL GRADIENTS AND MARINE LAYER. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. NOTICEABLE COOLING IS
LIKELY ON SUN AND MON AS HGTS FALL AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MONDAY'S MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
CSTS/VLYS. DESPITE ALL THE COOLING MONDAY'S MAX TEMPS WILL END UP
5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER NORMAL.
BOTH AI-MDLS (AS THEY HAVE FOR THE PAST 6 DAYS) SHOW A SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE AREA SOMETIME ON 31ST AND 1ST. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE AT LEAST A HALF INCH RAIN EVENT ALTHOUGH TODAY'S GFS-AI RUN WAS
WETTER.
***OF NOTE***
THIS HAS BE A PHENOMENALLY WARM MONTH. USING THE FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR DTLA FOR TODAY (THE 24RD) TO THE 31ST ALONG WITH
THE MAX TEMPS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED, THE DTLA AVERAGE MAX
TEMP FOR THE MONTH WOULD BE 82.0 DEGREES. THIS WOULD HANDILY
ECLIPSE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HOLDERS:
79.1 DEGREES IN 2015
76.7 DEGREES IN 2017
76.0 DEGREES IN 1931
75.8 DEGREES IN 1934
75.7 DEGREES IN 1959
AVIATION
24/1152Z.
AT 0823Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 4600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KPMD & KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING COASTAL TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. CIG HGT COULD VARY BY +/- 200
FT.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN KVNY TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS
13Z-17Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
CIGS OVC010-012 BY 15Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF VFR COND
ARRIVING AT 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD
RETURN BY 00Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
17Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF 2SM BR OVC004 CONDS AFTER
25/11Z.
MARINE
23/805 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. FOR WEDNESDAY,
THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE (30-50% CHANCE) OF GALES, LIKELY TO BE
FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON THRU OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. LARGE SEAS
OF 10-14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR SCA WINDS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR TUESDAY, THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE OF SCA WINDS. FOLLOWED BY A 60-70% CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN INNER
WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK, FOCUSED IN THE LATE EVENING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. VISIBILITIES OF ONE NAUTICAL MILE
OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 340>342-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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