561
FXUS66 KLOX 242147
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
247 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
24/836 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY AND ACROSS ALL VALLEYS AND INTERIOR AREAS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY A STUBBORN MARINE LAYER THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO WARM UP THOSE AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
24/124 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO DIVERT
ALL INCOMING STORMS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT LOWER LEVELS THE PATTERN
IS MORE COMPLICATED. SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION A PERSISTENT MARINE
LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET DEEP WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR
TWO, KEEPING COASTAL AREAS ON THE COOLER SIDE. HOWEVER, BY
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AND POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 3-4MB, LEADING TO
SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE MARINE LAYER.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES THERE GIVEN THE SPREAD
IN GRADIENTS, BUT A MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONG ENOUGH
OFFSHORE SIGNAL THAT SHOULD SUPPORT A RETURN OF 80S TO MOST
COASTAL AREAS. MEANWHILE, VALLEYS AND INTERIOR AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS AT LEAST 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A
ROUGHLY 5 DEGREE WARM UP BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. A RETURN
OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK MAY REQUIRE A LOW END WIND ADVISORY OR
TWO, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, OFFSHORE FLOW OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS
PEAKED MONDAY AND IS WEAKENING TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INLAND BUT ALONG THE COAST A SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND HAS ALREADY BEGUN. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL COOLING THERE
WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN A 60-70% CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG
THE COAST, MAINLY SOUTH OF MORRO BAY. HOWEVER, A RETURN OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY, BRINGING
80+ DEGREE TEMPS TO MANY AREAS AS WELL AS SOME NORTHEAST WINDS AT
TIMES. COOLER TEMPS LIKELY FRIDAY, THOUGH INLAND AREAS WILL STILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
24/147 PM.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND 500MB HEIGHTS STILL ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERALL, MOST AREAS IN
THE 80S AND 90S. NOT QUITE HOT ENOUGH FOR HEAT ADVISORIES BASED ON
THE FORECAST HIGH AND LOW TEMPS, BUT IF OFFSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER
THAN EXPECTED OR TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SOME HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SHIFTS TOWARDS TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AND FINALLY A
CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY INCREASING RAIN AMOUNTS, IN LINE WITH WHAT THE AI MODELS
HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING. STILL LIKELY NOT A MAJOR STORM FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, BUT PRETTY DECENT FOR APRIL. LATEST PROJECTIONS ARE
SHOWING AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND A HALF INCH FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS.
***OF NOTE***
THIS HAS BE A PHENOMENALLY WARM MONTH. USING THE FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR DTLA FOR TODAY (THE 24RD) TO THE 31ST ALONG WITH
THE MAX TEMPS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED, THE DTLA AVERAGE MAX
TEMP FOR THE MONTH WOULD BE 82.0 DEGREES. THIS WOULD HANDILY
ECLIPSE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HOLDERS:
79.1 DEGREES IN 2015
76.7 DEGREES IN 2017
76.0 DEGREES IN 1931
75.8 DEGREES IN 1934
75.7 DEGREES IN 1959
AVIATION
24/1819Z.
AT 18Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KPMD & KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING COASTAL TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. CIG HGT COULD VARY BY +/- 200
FT.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN KBUR AND KVNY WITH A 30-50 PERCENT CHC OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC THAT
LOW CLOUDS COULD RETURN BY 00Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
17Z. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.
MARINE
24/244 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. FOR WEDNESDAY,
THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE (30-50% CHANCE) OF GALES, LIKELY TO BE
FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON THRU OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. LARGE SEAS
OF 10-14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR SCA WINDS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR TODAY, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE
OF SCA WINDS. FOLLOWED BY A 70-80% CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN INNER
WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK, FOCUSED IN THE LATE EVENING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. VISIBILITIES OF ONE NAUTICAL MILE
OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 340>342-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...MUNROE
MARINE...RM/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
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