977
FXUS66 KLOX 251025
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
24/1159 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL VALLEYS AND
INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR COASTAL AREAS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM
UP ON FRIDAY MAX TEMPERATURES WILL END UP TEN TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER AND CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN POSSIBLE MID
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
25/1220 AM.
A 1300 FT MARINE LAYER AND DECENT ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST ALONG
WITH NEGLIGIBLE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR A
ROBUST MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN TO SIT ATOP OF MOST OF THE CSTS
AND MOST VLYS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS N OF PT CONCEPTION TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF
WESTERN SBA COUNTY. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT
WAS YDY, BUT THE ONSHORE PUSH IN THE AFTERNOON IS STRONGER SO
CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO YDY AND MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE
LATER. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YDY'S VALUES EXCEPT FOR
THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN EARLIER
SEABREEZE AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF COOLING.
A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL JOIN WITH A SMALL OFFSHORE PUSH
FROM THE NORTH AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR
AND NW PORTION OF THE ANTELOPE VLY. THE GUSTS WILL LIKELY COME IN
JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO WITH STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH HGTS OVER SRN CA UP TO 583 DAM. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS WILL THE LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY'S EXCEPT FOR
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE MTNS AND MOST VLYS DUE TO THE
RISING HGTS. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL ALSO WARM WITH A LITTLE
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
FRIDAY'S FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY AND IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A DECENT
OFFSHORE PUSH, MINIMAL MARINE LAYER AND 4 TO 8 LOCALLY 10 DEGREES
OF WARMING. THE HIGHER REZ MDLS ARE ARE JUST STARTING TO FORECAST
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND DO NOT SHOW NEARLY AS MUCH OFFSHORE FLOW.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, FRIDAY'S FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE COOLED
AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS REINTRODUCED.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
25/225 AM.
SRN CA WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING SW FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HGTS WILL FALL FROM ABOUT 579 DAM ON SATURDAY MORNING TO
~568 DAM ON TUESDAY MORNING. GRADIENTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE AND
MORE ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT VLY COVERAGE. SKIES,
OTHERWISE WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING ON MONDAY.
THE LOWERING HGTS, MARINE LAYER, INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ALL CONSPIRE TO LOWER TEMPS STARTING SUNDAY
(SATURDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S). THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALL FOR 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY, 3 TO 6 DEGREES
ON MONDAY AND 5 TO 10 ADDITIONAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY
MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
MARCH 4TH.
A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A TROF/WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH
AI-MDLS HAVE KEPT THIS TIMING BUT NOW SHOW MUCH LESS RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND AI BASED FORECASTS NOW SHOW THAT
THIS WILL BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH STORM. THIS COULD CHANGE AND
WHILE TIMING CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THE RAINFALL FORECAST IS NOT.
AVIATION
25/1017Z.
AT 0825Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TAFS FOR KPRB, KPMD, & KWJF.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KSBP WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS 12Z-17Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. CIG HGT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
200 FT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS LATE
AS 1930Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS 26/01Z. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
CIGS REMAINING AOA OVC005.
MARINE
24/836 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND STEEP SEAS
EXPANDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL
COAST DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN QUICKLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, WHEN THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR LOW-END GALES.
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME OF THOSE
WINDS AND SEAS, WITH A 60% CHANCE OF REACHING SCA DURING THE
PEAK.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE WATERS BEING WITHOUT A SCA
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
WHILE SOME FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY STAY
ABOVE 1 MILE.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...BLACK
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