706
FXUS66 KLOX 190645
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1145 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
18/804 PM.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY
BREEZY ONSHORE WIND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK TO MODERATE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, FOCUSED OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES. IMPACTS WILL GENERALLY BE MINOR. WIDESPREAD
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
18/819 PM.
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT OVERHEAD. HIGHS TODAY
WERE RATHER WARM WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE SHORT TERM, MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
SAME SYNOPTIC PAGE. MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE REMAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW,
CURRENTLY AROUND 450 MILES WEST OF WASHINGTON STATE. THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THIS UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST. MOVING INLAND
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS THIS
PATTERN DEVELOPS, A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
ALL AREAS WITH MOST AREAS ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST MONDAY EVENING WITH RAIN SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RAIN BAND WILL LOSE IT'S "OOMPH" AFTER IT PASSES THROUGH
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SO, HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS (0.50-1.50 INCHES)
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS (0.10-0.50 INCHES) ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES. SOME FOOTHILL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE STILL IS A
10-20% CHANCE THAT AMOUNTS COULD BE AROUND DOUBLE OF CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS (BASED ON SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). RAINFALL RATES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.33 INCH/HOUR RANGE,
RESULTING IN MINIMAL HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL
BE A 10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES.
AS FOR SNOW LEVELS, THEY LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 6500 TO 7000
FOOT RANGE. SO, NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
18/1224 PM.
THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY WILL OPEN UP AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. SOME PROJECTIONS HAVE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THROUGH SAN LUIS OBISPO AND
SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. IF THIS ENDS UP HAPPENING, A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS WOULD BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY (ABOUT A 20% CHANCE). THESE
SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK CONVECTIVE AND ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINOR.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE RISE FOR THE BACK HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MOST
PROJECTIONS SHOW A CLASSIC POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
PUSH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25
TO 45 MPH FOCUSED OVER COASTAL, MOUNTAIN, AND DESERT AREAS. THE
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
WEAK INSIDE SLIDER MOVES THROUGH, WITH WINDS FOCUSED OVER THE
MORE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS. SATURDAY COULD SEE CONTINUED NORTHWEST
WINDS, OR SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW THE INSIDE SLIDE RETROGRADING WEST
AND OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK, BUT JUST TO ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION
19/0644Z.
AT 0515Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 600 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 C.
OVERALL FOR THE TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
FOR KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
FOR KSMX, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS 08Z-17Z.
FOR KSMO, KLAX AND KLGB, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS 09Z-17Z.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS 09Z-17Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
18/803 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TUESDAY MORNING.
SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, SCA LEVEL NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF WATERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AT LEAST FOR SOME WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/KITTELL
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...RK/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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