577
FXUS66 KLOX 191159
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
459 AM PDT SUN APR 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
19/339 AM.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY
BREEZY ONSHORE WIND IS EXPECTED THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TO
MODERATE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, FOCUSED OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES. IMPACTS WILL GENERALLY BE MINOR. WIDESPREAD GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
19/322 AM.
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 70S EACH DAY. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTELRY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY
AROUND 450 MILES WEST OF WASHINGTON STATE, WILL DROP SOUTH AND
EAST MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. AS THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS, A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH MOST AREAS ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST MONDAY EVENING WITH RAIN SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
RAIN BAND WILL LOSE IT'S "OOMPH" AFTER IT PASSES THROUGH SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY. SO, HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS (0.50-1.50 INCHES) ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS (0.10-0.50 INCHES) ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES. SOME FOOTHILL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE STILL IS A 10-20%
CHANCE THAT AMOUNTS COULD BE AROUND DOUBLE OF CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
(BASED ON SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). RAINFALL RATES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.33 INCH/HOUR RANGE, RESULTING IN
MINIMAL HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. EVEN IF THE RAINFALL TOTALS DO TREND
UPWARDS TOWARDS THE HIGHER END SCENARIO, OVERALL FLOODING RISK
WILL REMAIN MINOR TO MODERATE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE A
10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES.
AS FOR SNOW LEVELS, THEY LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 6500 TO 7000
FOOT RANGE. SO, NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH TO PARTS
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF
SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
19/336 AM.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESAY
INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ALONG NORTH FACING MOUNTAINS SLOPES. WEST
TO NORTHWESTERN WINDS ARE LIKELY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT,
WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BEACHES, MOUNTAINS, AND
DESERTS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A WEAK INSIDE SLIDER NOSES INTO THE REGION, WITH WINDS
FOCUSED OVER THE MORE TYPICALLY WINDY MOUNTAIN/DESERT AREAS.
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY (WIDESPREAD 60S),
INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN NEXT WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK (4/25-4/28), AS SOME MODELS HAVE THE INSIDE
SLIDER SYSTEM TRAVELING WESTWARD AND CENTERING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
AVIATION
19/1158Z.
AT 07Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 C.
OVERALL FOR THE TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
FOR KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
FOR KSMX, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOR KSMO, KLAX AND KLGB, THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 17Z.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE
OF BKN004-BKN010 CIGS UNTIL 17Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
19/338 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TUESDAY MORNING.
SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, SCA LEVEL NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF WATERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AT LEAST FOR SOME WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...RK/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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