574
FXUS66 KLOX 192230
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 PM PDT SUN APR 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
19/120 PM.
A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN APPROACHING
STORM BRINGS A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, FOCUSED OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. WIDESPREAD GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
19/200 PM.
ANOTHER QUIET DAY OF WEATHER ON MONDAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY MARCHES SOUTH DOWN THE WEST COAST. GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO
TREND ONSHORE MEANING COOLING WILL REACH FARTHER INLAND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME MORNING MARINE LAYER NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE
TIMING OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW AND THE RESULTING RAIN
AMOUNTS. MOST THE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING RAIN BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
LA COUNTY, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS. ENSEMBLE MEAN RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE INCH FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND AROUND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS ACROSS LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. SLO COUNTY (AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS) WILL BE IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODELS
SHOWING 500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -25C WHICH IS ONE FACTOR IN
THE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THERE AND THE RAPID DROP OFF IN AMOUNTS
TO THE SOUTH. PEAK RAIN RATES IN SLO COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
A HALF INCH PER HOUR.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. HOWEVER, MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SLO AND NORTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND
SHIFT TO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM
NORTHEAST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EAST TO THE GRAPEVINE REGION.
THESE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET.
RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE MINIMAL BUT THERE COULD BE A DUSTING OF
SNOW ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS WILL BE EXPERIENCING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, GENERALLY 20-35 MPH, BUT WITH SOME GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 40-50 MPH IN PARTS OF INTERIOR SLO COUNTY, THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE NEEDING WIND
ADVISORIES IN MANY AREAS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
19/214 PM.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FREE OF ANY WEATHER IMPACTS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THIS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MODELS INDICATING AT LEAST SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST AND SUNDAY MORNING IN LA COUNTY. MOST SOLUTIONS SHOW
AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH, AND AT LEAST HALF OF THOSE, MAINLY
SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION, FROM NOTHING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
AVIATION
19/2230Z.
AT 2200Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 700 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR KPRB,
KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
FOR KSBP, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS 09Z-16Z.
FOR KSMX, KLAX, KSMO, KLGB, KOXR AND KCMA, THERE IS A 30-40%
CHANCE THAT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DO NOT DEVELOP. IF THEY DO
ARRIVE, TIMING COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST AND FLIGHT
CATEGORIES COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 CATEGORIES.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DO NOT DEVELOP. IF THEY DO DEVELOP, TIMING
OF ARRIVAL COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST AND FLIGHT
CATEGORY COULD BE +/- 1 CATEGORY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITION ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
19/1147 AM.
A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS TUESDAY MORNING.
SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, SCA LEVEL NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF WATERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AT LEAST FOR SOME WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RM/BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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