160
FXUS66 KLOX 200313
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
813 PM PDT SUN APR 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
19/120 PM.
A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN APPROACHING
STORM BRINGS A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, FOCUSED OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. WIDESPREAD GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
19/812 PM.
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. CURRENT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES MARINE
INVERSION AROUND 800 FEET IN DEPTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, GUSTING
IN THE 25-35 MPH, ARE OBSERVED ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE SHORT TERM, PRIMARY FOCUS REMAINS ON THE
CUTOFF LOW, FORECAST TO BRING SOME WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
THE AREA. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES NOTHING TO REALLY DEVIATE
FROM CURRENT FORECAST. RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS SLO COUNTY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING, THE RAIN WILL BE TAPERING
OFF, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK TO BE MOST IMPRESSIVE ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WITH
WIDESPREAD 0.50" TO 1.00" TOTALS AND LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND
1.50" ACROSS SOME FOOTHILL AREAS. FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES, THE
RAIN WILL LOSE SOME "OOMPH" WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.33" OR
LESS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 0.75 ACROSS THE VENTURA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. ALONG WITH RAIN, THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING
INSTABILITY MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY. SO, THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE 15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS SLO COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 0.25" OR LESS PER HOUR. HOWEVER, WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, RATES UP TO AROUND 0.50" PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SO, GIVEN THE RAINFALL RATES, NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. BASED ON CURRENT SNOW LEVEL FORECASTS, NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS.
AS FOR WINDS, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS AND COULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE LA MOUNTAINS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WEST
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND A FEW DEGREES, CLIMBING TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
19/214 PM.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FREE OF ANY WEATHER IMPACTS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THIS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MODELS INDICATING AT LEAST SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST AND SUNDAY MORNING IN LA COUNTY. MOST SOLUTIONS SHOW
AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH, AND AT LEAST HALF OF THOSE, MAINLY
SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION, FROM NOTHING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
AVIATION
19/2230Z.
AT 2200Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 700 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR KPRB,
KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
FOR KSBP, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS 09Z-16Z.
FOR KSMX, KLAX, KSMO, KLGB, KOXR AND KCMA, THERE IS A 30-40%
CHANCE THAT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DO NOT DEVELOP. IF THEY DO
ARRIVE, TIMING COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST AND FLIGHT
CATEGORIES COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 CATEGORIES.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DO NOT DEVELOP. IF THEY DO DEVELOP, TIMING
OF ARRIVAL COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST AND FLIGHT
CATEGORY COULD BE +/- 1 CATEGORY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITION ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
19/1147 AM.
A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS TUESDAY MORNING.
SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, SCA LEVEL NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF WATERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AT LEAST FOR SOME WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RM/BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
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