500
FXUS66 KLOX 201008
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
308 AM PDT MON APR 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
20/307 AM.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WILL THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY
AND MINIMAL IMPACTS OVERALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
20/303 AM.
FORECAST-WISE THE PRIMARY FOCUS REMAINS ON THE CUTOFF LOW,
FORECAST TO BRING SOME WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES NOTHING TO REALLY DEVIATE FROM CURRENT
FORECAST. RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS SLO COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING, THE RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS STILL LOOK
TO BE MOST IMPRESSIVE ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WITH WIDESPREAD
0.50" TO 1.00" TOTALS AND LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.50" ACROSS
SOME FOOTHILL AREAS. FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES, THE RAIN WILL
LOSE SOME "OOMPH" WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.33" OR LESS WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 0.75 ACROSS THE VENTURA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. ALONG WITH RAIN, THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING
INSTABILITY MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY. SO, THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE 15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS SLO COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 0.25" OR LESS PER HOUR. HOWEVER, WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, RATES UP TO AROUND 0.50" PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SO, GIVEN THE RAINFALL RATES, NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. BASED ON CURRENT SNOW LEVEL FORECASTS, NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS.
AS FOR WINDS, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS AND COULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE LA MOUNTAINS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WEST
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES, CLIMBING TO AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
19/214 PM.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FREE OF ANY WEATHER IMPACTS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THIS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MODELS INDICATING AT LEAST SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST AND SUNDAY MORNING IN LA COUNTY. MOST SOLUTIONS SHOW
AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH, AND AT LEAST HALF OF THOSE, MAINLY
SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION, FROM NOTHING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
AVIATION
20/0822Z.
AT 07Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 800 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND
KWJF. FOR KSBP AND KSBA, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
FROM 10Z-16Z. FOR ALL OTHER SITES COAST AND VALLEY SITES, CIGS MAY
BOUNCE BETWEEN CATEGORIES DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH A 20% CHANCE OF
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, IF CIGS DO FORM THEY MAY
SCATTER AND REFORM. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
20/123 AM.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS TUESDAY MORNING.
SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, AND WHILE SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST, THERE IS A
20-30% CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS COULD OCCUR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT,
INCREASING TO SCA LEVEL NW WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF WATERS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS INSIDE THE SOCAL BIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. SCA WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AT LEAST
FOR SOME WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...RM/BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page