232
FXUS66 KLOX 201725
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 AM PDT MON APR 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
20/307 AM.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WILL THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY
AND MINIMAL IMPACTS OVERALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
20/303 AM.
FORECAST-WISE THE PRIMARY FOCUS REMAINS ON THE CUTOFF LOW,
FORECAST TO BRING SOME WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES NOTHING TO REALLY DEVIATE FROM CURRENT
FORECAST. RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS SLO COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING, THE RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS STILL LOOK
TO BE MOST IMPRESSIVE ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WITH WIDESPREAD
0.50" TO 1.00" TOTALS AND LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.50" ACROSS
SOME FOOTHILL AREAS. FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES, THE RAIN WILL
LOSE SOME "OOMPH" WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.33" OR LESS WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 0.75 ACROSS THE VENTURA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. ALONG WITH RAIN, THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING
INSTABILITY MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY. SO, THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE 15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS SLO COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 0.25" OR LESS PER HOUR. HOWEVER, WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, RATES UP TO AROUND 0.50" PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SO, GIVEN THE RAINFALL RATES, NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. BASED ON CURRENT SNOW LEVEL FORECASTS, NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS.
AS FOR WINDS, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS AND COULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE LA MOUNTAINS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WEST
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES, CLIMBING TO AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
20/328 AM.
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN MOST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S COMMON. STARTING ON
SATURDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION, AND
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT, RAIN
TOTALS, IF ANY, ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA (<0.5
INCHES). CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN
RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTH- FACING FOOTHILL SLOPES.
AVIATION
20/1724Z.
AT 1630Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS 2000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH 05Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL
SITES. AFTER 05Z, A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA,
BRINGING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AS RAIN. TIMING OF RAIN AND
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE +/-
3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
THERE WILL BE A 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING AT
KPRB AND KSBP.
KLAX...OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RETURN OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS, BUT TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. TIMING OF LIGHT
RAIN COULD ALSO BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RETURN OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS, BUT TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
MARINE
20/717 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 20-30%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE IS A
20-30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON
WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS ALL
THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS WITH A 20% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE WILL BE A 20% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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