217
FXUS66 KLOX 201951
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1251 PM PDT MON APR 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
20/307 AM.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WILL THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY
AND MINIMAL IMPACTS OVERALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
20/1250 PM.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING.
WE ARE ON TRACK FOR A MODERATE (FOR APRIL) STORM TARGETING THE
CENTRAL COAST AND POINTS NORTH, ALTHOUGH LESSER IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL MARCH THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. IT WILL BECOME WEAK AS IT MOVES THROUGH VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS GENERALLY 20 TO 40
MPH AND JUST SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SAVE FOR INTERIOR LA COUNTY WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT STRONGER. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER OF AN IN TO LOCALLY AN
INCH IS ANTICIPATED FOR SAN LOUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY FOCUSED MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT MID
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH, AND CLOUD-TO- GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE MOST
LIKELY HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK RAINFALL RATES WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR LESS,
ALTHOUGH MAY LOCALLY PEAK NEAR 0.5 INCHES PER HOUR IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SANTA BARBARA TO
FAR WESTERN VENTURA COUNTY (IN THE MOUNTAINS). MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IF THESE RATES OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS OR NEAR
RECENT BURN SCARS.
MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE STORM MAY SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR
WEST AND NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES FOCUSED FROM SAN LUIS OBISPO
TO NORTHERN VENTURA COUNTY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH IS
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY FOCUSED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TO INTERIOR, BUT LIKELY EXTENDING INTO COASTAL AREAS AT TIMES.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
20/1222 PM.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WHEN MOST HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
COMMON. THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS TO INTERIOR SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
THANKS TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THE STORM ENERGY IS COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AND IS WEAK SO SIGNIFICANT WIND CONCERNS ARE UNLIKELY, BUT IT DOES
LEND ITSELF TO BELOW NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN (FOR APRIL) MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAK STORM IS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
20/1724Z.
AT 1630Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS 2000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH 05Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL
SITES. AFTER 05Z, A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA,
BRINGING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AS RAIN. TIMING OF RAIN AND
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE +/-
3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
THERE WILL BE A 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING AT
KPRB AND KSBP.
KLAX...OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RETURN OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS, BUT TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. TIMING OF LIGHT
RAIN COULD ALSO BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RETURN OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS, BUT TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
MARINE
20/1203 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE IS A
20% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ON SATURDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON
WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS ALL
THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS WITH A 20% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL WINDS. ON SATURDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE WILL BE A 20% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 378>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MUNROE/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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