585
FXUS66 KLOX 210326
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
826 PM PDT MON APR 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
20/717 PM.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AREA.
THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY,
HOWEVER WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (MON-THU)
20/818 PM.
***UPDATE***
A MODERATE LATE SEASON STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, HOWEVER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL COVER SAN LUIS OBISPO AND
SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, AS THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
VENTURA COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 400 AM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY. WHILE THERE IS A
CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
THIS WILL BE ENHANCED OVER SLO COUNTY DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN
INCH FOR SAN LOUIS OBISPO (EXCEPT FOR 1.5-2 INCHES FOR THE COASTAL
HILLS) AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, TO 0.5 INCH IN THE VENTURA
MOUNTAINS, TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH, AND CLOUD-TO- GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR
LESS, ALTHOUGH RATES UP TO 0.5 INCHES PER HOUR MANY OCCUR IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IF THESE RATES OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING URBAN
AREAS OR NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS.
AS FOR WINDS, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
AND NEAR THE FRONT, GENERALLY 20 TO 40 MPH. STRONGER SW WINDS
WILL AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS FROM
AROUND 10 AM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THIS TIME,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY INTO
THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR, BUT MAY AFFECT SOME COASTAL SECTIONS AT TIMES.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
20/1222 PM.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WHEN MOST HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
COMMON. THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS TO INTERIOR SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
THANKS TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THE STORM ENERGY IS COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AND IS WEAK SO SIGNIFICANT WIND CONCERNS ARE UNLIKELY, BUT IT DOES
LEND ITSELF TO BELOW NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN (FOR APRIL) MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAK STORM IS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
21/0144Z.
AT 2209Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 3100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH
05Z, THEN MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FROM NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS
THE THE FRONT APPROACHES. TIMING OF RAIN AND FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF
CURRENT FORECASTS. THERE WILL BE A 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY MORNING AT KPRB, KSBP, AND KSMX.
KLAX...OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS, BUT TIMING OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN COULD ALSO BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECAST. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OF
AROUND 5-6 KT FROM 13Z TO 18Z.
KBUR...OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS, BUT TIMING OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
MARINE
20/1203 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE IS A
20% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ON SATURDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON
WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS ALL
THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS WITH A 20% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL WINDS. ON SATURDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE WILL BE A 20% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 378>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CILIBERTI/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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