356
FXUS66 KLOX 211634
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
934 AM PDT TUE APR 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
21/222 AM.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AREA. THE
HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY,
HOWEVER WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
21/932 AM.
***UPDATE***
RAINFALL RATES (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD OF AN INCH PER HOUR)
AND AMOUNTS (GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH) HAVE BEEN TRACKING
WELL WITH FORECAST SO FAR. AS EXPECTED THE FRONT IS WEAKENING
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, HIGHEST NORTHERN SECTION. WE WERE
SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFF SHORE WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAT MAY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ASHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
DAYTIME HEATING OVER LAND. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH, AND CLOUD-TO- GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
TODAY, WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME FOR INTERIOR MOUNTAINS TO
POTENTIALLY SOME COASTAL SECTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN VENTURA COUNTY.
THE STORM DOOR MAY REMAIN OPEN INTO EARLY MAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN POTENTIAL AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY OR
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A MODERATE LATE SEASON STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING, HOWEVER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL COVER SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES, AS THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER VENTURA COUNTY
AND ESPECIALLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN AT TIMES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THIS WILL BE ENHANCED OVER SLO COUNTY DUE
TO THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN
INCH FOR SAN LOUIS OBISPO (EXCEPT FOR 1.5-2 INCHES FOR THE COASTAL
HILLS) AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, TO 0.5 INCH IN THE VENTURA
MOUNTAINS, TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH, AND CLOUD-TO- GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR
LESS, ALTHOUGH RATES UP TO 0.5 INCHES PER HOUR MANY OCCUR IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IF THESE RATES OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING URBAN
AREAS OR NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS.
AS FOR WINDS, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
AND NEAR THE FRONT, GENERALLY 20 TO 40 MPH. STRONGER SW WINDS
WILL AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS FROM
AROUND 10 AM TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER THIS TIME, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY INTO
THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR, BUT MAY AFFECT SOME COASTAL SECTIONS AT TIMES.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
21/540 AM.
FRIDAY WILL OFFER ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
IN THE 70S. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA
THAT WILL LEAD TO A COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND, DROPPING
TEMPERATURE BACK INTO THE 60S. THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS TO INTERIOR
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE STORM ENERGY IS COMING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND IS WEAK SO SIGNIFICANT WIND CONCERNS
ARE UNLIKELY, BUT IT DOES LEND ITSELF TO BELOW NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. RAIN CHANCES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
21/1207Z.
AT 0743Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1500 FT WITH A WEAK
INVERSION UP TO 2100 FT WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 13 C.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE, AS A FRONT WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVES FROM NORTH TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF RAIN AND
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
THERE WILL BE A 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z WED AT
KPRB, KSBP, AND KSMX.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS, BUT
TIMING OF RAIN AND FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS
OF CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR AN EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT OF AROUND 5-6 KT THROUGH 18Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS, BUT
TIMING OF RAIN AND FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS
OF CURRENT FORECAST.
MARINE
21/712 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR TODAY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PZZ670 WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS PZZ673/676. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR TODAY, THERE IS A 60-70%
CHANCE OF A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ON SATURDAY,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR TODAY, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS ALL THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS
WITH A 20% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR
MOST AREAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS. ON
SATURDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY.
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE WILL BE A 20% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN,
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 378>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...CILIBERTI/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page