886
FXUS66 KLOX 212004
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
104 PM PDT TUE APR 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
21/1251 PM.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWS SOME WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS WAKE,
ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. A WEAK STORM WITH
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
21/103 PM.
THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT MUCH OF THE RAIN TO AREAS UP NORTH AS
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FOCUSED AHEAD
OF IT IN LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TO SAN LOUIS OBISPO COUNTY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH, AND
CLOUD- TO- GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR MODERATE RAIN RATES AS LARGELY
ENDED, ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED HOURLY RATES AROUND A QUARTER TO
HALF OF AN INCH PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, ALLOWING
ONGOING WIND ADVISORIES TO END. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, MUCH OF VENTURA COUNTY, AND WESTERN
LOS ANGELES COUNTY. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
BREEZY IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW GRADUAL WARMING OF
4-8 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY, APPROACHING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
21/1252 PM.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA THAT WILL LEAD
TO A COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND, DROPPING TEMPERATURE BACK
INTO THE 60S. THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS TO INTERIOR SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
THANKS TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THE STORM ENERGY IS COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AND IS WEAK SO SIGNIFICANT WIND CONCERNS ARE UNLIKELY, BUT IT
DOES LEND ITSELF TO BELOW NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. RAIN CHANCES
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
21/1647Z.
AT 1630Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.
OVERALL, LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR LEVELS THROUGH 22Z DUE TO LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THESE CHANGES IS LOW. FOR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL AND
VALLEY SITES.
THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION (KSMX, KSBP AND KPRB) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. WITH RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR LEVELS AND
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THESE FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES WILL REMAIN
LOW. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING IN THE 05Z-17Z TIME FRAME. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 19Z.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. WITH RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR LEVELS AND
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THESE FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES WILL REMAIN
LOW. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING IN THE 05Z-17Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE
21/1219 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS ALL THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 376-377. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 378>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES 650-655-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MUNROE/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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