969
FXUS66 KLOX 230352
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
852 PM PDT WED APR 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
22/106 PM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT
TIMES. ANOTHER WEAK STORM MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
22/851 PM.
***UPDATE***
ASIDE FROM A FEW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING, TODAY
WAS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOUT 2 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE QUITE STRONG TODAY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COASTS, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
COMMON. SOME AREAS REMAIN QUITE WINDY, AND NORTHERLY SUNDOWNER
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH. WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVELS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND I-5 CORRIDOR, WITH
GUSTS FROM AROUND 20 TO 35 MPH. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR.
EXPECTING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXPAND THURSDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NEEDED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS GETTING CLOSE TO,
BUT LIKELY FALLING JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS,
THE LATTER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AT LEAST NEAR THE COAST, THOUGH GUSTY
MOUNTAIN WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
LEADING TO 3-6 DEGREES OF WARMING (MOSTLY INLAND) AND GENERALLY
LESS WIND, THOUGH THERE WILL BE THE TYPICAL ONSHORE AFTERNOON
BREEZES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF
MORNING STRATUS AROUND BUT NOT LASTING LONG.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL START A COOLING TREND THAT WILL CARRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, ROUGHLY 60-80 PERCENT OF THE
ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY SHOW AT LEAST SOME RAIN FOR ALL SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA AREAS EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE DESERT, THOUGH THE TIMING IS
STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS, AND IN MANY AREAS PROBABLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS, ESPECIALLY VENTURA/LA COUNTIES. GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING. COULD BE APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
22/207 PM.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SATURDAY STORM,
RESULTING IN SOME CARRY OVER SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WITH CLEARING SKIES.
DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY. THEN TUESDAY THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK
STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH SIMILAR OR
EVEN LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
23/0234Z.
AT 0033Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR MARINE INVERSION.
OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE FOR MOST SITES.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN KPRB AND KSMX. AT KPRB, THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE THAT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DO NOT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AT
KSMX, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
05Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. EAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 11
TO 17Z, BUT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD BE 5KT OR LESS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.
MARINE
22/840 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING,
HOWEVER WINDS MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES, MAINLY
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A 50-60%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN INNER
WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/RAT
MARINE...RAT/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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