564
FXUS66 KLOX 231722
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1022 AM PDT THU APR 23 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
22/1146 PM.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR WARMING
TODAY THEN COOLING WITH A STRONGER SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY. CONTINUED
COOLING SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WARMER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN, ANOTHER WEAK STORM MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN
TO THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
23/1204 AM.
WEAK RIDGING ALONG WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT N
TO NE CANYON WINDS BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE MAIN EFFECT
OF THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE CREATION OF A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND. MOST AREAS WILL WARM 4 TO 8 DEGREES
COMPARED TO YDY. MOST MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS WILL BE IN
THE 70S WITH A SMATTERING OF 80 AND 81 DEGREE READINGS IN THE
WARMEST VLY LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A VERY WEAK TROF
WILL RIDE IN ON ITS COATTAILS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND
TURN ONSHORE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE SOME COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. SKIES
OTHERWISE WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. SLIGHTLY LOWER HGTS AND,
MORE IMPORTANTLY, STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE TO KNOCK OFF
2 TO 4 LOCALLY 5 DEGREES FROM THE MAX TEMPS OVER THE CSTS/VLYS.
THE ABSENCE OF COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THE FAR INTERIOR TO
WARM A FEW DEGREES.
ON SATURDAY A 555 DAM UPPER LOW WILL SWING INTO SLO COUNTY AND
THEN MOVE INTO AND THROUGH KERN COUNTY. THE SYSTEM IS NOT THAT WET
NOR PARTICULARLY DYNAMIC, BUT WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN TO MOST AREAS (MAYBE NOT THE ANTELOPE VLY) FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE LIKELY XTND
PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER
A QUARTER INCH AND LIKELY A TENTH OR LESS. RAINFALL RATES WILL
ALSO BE A NON THREATENING LESS THE A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR. IT
WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THE CLOUDS, RAIN, ONSHORE FLOW AND
558 DAM HGTS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS FALLING 5 TO 10
DEGREES AND ENDING UP IN THE 60S. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE 4 TO 8
LOCALLY 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
EVENING. THE ANTELOPE VLY COULD WELL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
23/225 AM.
THERE ARE ENOUGH ENSEMBLES THAT LAG THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A SLIGHT CHC OF MORNING RAIN. THE FORECAST SHOULD BE THOUGHT OF AS
AN "80 PERCENT CHC OF NO RAIN". OTHERWISE, THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WILL LEAVE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS IN ITS WAKE. IT WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE PUSH TO
THE EAST WILL BE APPROACHING 8 MB.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. ENOUGH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA TO MAKE IT A PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP 2 TO 4 DEGREES AND MAX TEMPS WILL END
UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CSTS AND LOWER 70S IN THE
VLYS.
THE MDLS ARE MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT TUESDAY'S SYSTEM AND A
20 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN MIGHT EVEN BE GENEROUS. THE AI MDLS ARE
HINTING THAT THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ITS FORECAST OF A BIG
HONKING UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AND
PREFER THE AI-SOLUTIONS WITH THE LESS HUGE UPPER LOW FURTHER OFF
TO THE SW. IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
COMING IN A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
AVIATION
23/1721Z.
AT 16Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR MARINE INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KLAX AND KLGB
THURSDAY MORNING.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. PATCHY MVFR CIGS 010-015
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE AIRFIELD 23/10Z-17Z. THERE IS A 50%
CHANCE OF EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING 7-8 KTS 24/10-18Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
23/756 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SCA WINDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. WINDS COULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR
LOW-END SCA LEVEL NW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL AND NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE SCA
WINDS OCCUR ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER, ONSHORE WINDS COULD
LOCALLY REACH SCA LEVELS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page