994
FXUS66 KLOX 232043
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
143 PM PDT THU APR 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
23/1236 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY BEFORE A COOLING TREND
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK STORM APPROACHES. THE STORM
WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MOST AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER WEAK STORM POSSIBLE AROUND LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
23/119 PM.
EXPECTING A VERY SIMILAR DAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. LIKELY SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
BUT DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. A MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLES, ROUGHLY 60-70% OF THEM, INDICATE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
MEASURABLE RAIN DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS VERY LITTLE
FORCING WITH THIS ONE AND AGREE WITH THE MODELS THAT AMOUNTS WILL
BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH A QUARTER INCH BEING THE
HIGHEST, GENERALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY, STRONGEST IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART BUT MODELS SHOW
LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND, BEST CHANCES
IN THE EASTERN LA COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
23/140 PM.
A COUPLE OF COOL BUT DRY AND SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL FORCING WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE EC ENSEMBLES ARE DRY BUT THE GEFS SOLUTIONS
ARE A LITTLE WETTER. STILL A VERY LOW IMPACT SYSTEM WITH RAIN
AMOUNTS, IF ANY, UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS, BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
23/1721Z.
AT 16Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR MARINE INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KLAX AND KLGB
THURSDAY MORNING.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. PATCHY MVFR CIGS 010-015
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE AIRFIELD 23/10Z-17Z. THERE IS A 50%
CHANCE OF EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING 7-8 KTS 24/10-18Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
23/111 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SCA WINDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. WINDS COULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR
LOW-END SCA LEVEL NW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL AND NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE SCA
WINDS OCCUR ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER, ONSHORE WINDS COULD
LOCALLY REACH SCA LEVELS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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