586
FXUS66 KLOX 240639
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1139 PM PDT THU APR 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
23/750 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY, WITH A COOLING TREND
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK STORM CROSSES THE AREA. THE STORM WILL
BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED MOST AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER WEAK STORM POSSIBLE AROUND LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
23/805 PM.
***UPDATE***
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. SOME BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LA BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH A 30%
CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SOUTH OF SANTA MARIA. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE AFFECTING SW SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, LIKELY PEAKING NOW
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGEST NEAR REFUGIO).
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER, ASIDE FROM A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR SECTIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION, AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO GUSTY ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SAN GABRIELS INTO
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK STORM SYSTEM.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. A MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLES, ROUGHLY 60-70% OF THEM, INDICATE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
MEASURABLE RAIN DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS VERY LITTLE
FORCING WITH THIS ONE AND AGREE WITH THE MODELS THAT AMOUNTS WILL
BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH A QUARTER INCH BEING THE
HIGHEST, GENERALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY, STRONGEST IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART BUT MODELS SHOW
LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND, BEST CHANCES
IN THE EASTERN LA COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
23/140 PM.
A COUPLE OF COOL BUT DRY AND SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL FORCING WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE EC ENSEMBLES ARE DRY BUT THE GEFS SOLUTIONS
ARE A LITTLE WETTER. STILL A VERY LOW IMPACT SYSTEM WITH RAIN
AMOUNTS, IF ANY, UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS, BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
24/0638Z.
AT 0535Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR MARINE INVERSION.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSMX, KSMO, KLAX, AND KLGB WHERE THERE
IS A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CONDS 12Z-17Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
REMAINDER OF TAFS.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC OF BKN008
CONDS 12Z-17Z. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHC OF MVFR CONDS AFTER
25/08Z. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING 7-8
KTS 10-18Z FRI.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
23/752 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE ACROSS THE
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS, SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS COULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES FRIDAY MONRING.
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR LOW-END
SCA LEVEL NW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS A 40-50%
CHANCE SCA WINDS OCCUR ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED WATERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE EXTREME
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CHANNEL. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, ONSHORE WINDS COULD LOCALLY REACH SCA LEVELS
ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
ANACAPA PASSAGE.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/CC
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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