046
FXUS66 KLOX 241718
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1018 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
24/846 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY, WITH A COOLING TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK STORM CROSSES THE AREA. THE STORM WILL
BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED MOST AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER WEAK STORM POSSIBLE AROUND LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
24/908 AM.
***UPDATE***
MINIMAL, IF ANY, IMPACTFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY,
THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF TIMING (PROBABLY AFTER NOON SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION) AND SOME AREAS MAY JUST GET SOME SPRINKLES AND NO
MEASURABLE RAIN. WINDS ALOFT ARE MOSTLY FROM THE WEST WITH THIS
EVENT SO THAT'S NOT A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF PT CONCEPTION, PARTICULARLY FROM SOUTHEAST SB COUNTY TO WESTERN
LA COUNTY DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING CREATED BY THE TRANSVERSE RANGE.
IN ANY CASE, AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT, UNDER A QUARTER INCH
IN ALL AREAS AND MOST AREAS UNDER A TENTH.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A SMALL TROF WILL MOVE IN AND THROUGH SLO COUNTY AND THEN OVER
KERN COUNTY ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO MAKE IT A
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. IT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND/OR
DYNAMICS TO MAKE IT MUCH OF A THREAT. STILL, MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE DAY AND EVENING WILL MOSTLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN SOME MTN LOCATIONS. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY, STRONGEST IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN. LOOK FOR 4 TO 8
DEGREES OF COOLING WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR THE
CSTS/VLYS.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDED THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREPONDERANCE OF MDL GUIDANCE INDICATES. IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL
BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES SAVE FOR SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. IT WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
24/334 AM.
THE BOTTOM OF A WEAK POS TILT TROF WILL COVER MOST OF THE STATE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY BENIGN. MAX TEMPS
WILL RISE 1 OR 2 DEGREES EACH DAY. EVEN WITH THE WARMING MAX TEMPS
WILL END UP 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MDLS REMAIN CONFUSED FOR THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SYSTEM WITH REALLY ONLY A 20
PERCENT CHC OF RAIN. REALLY THE ONLY WET MDL IS THE GFS WHICH
IS THE ONLY MDL THAT GENERATES A CLOSED LOW. IF IT DOES RAIN,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IF ANY, UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. MAX TEMPS WILL
END UP MOSTLY MID 60S TO THE MID 70S.
RIDGING LOOKS LIKELY FOR THU AND FRI WITH 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF
WARMING SLATED FOR EACH DAY.
AVIATION
24/1718Z.
AT 1630Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR MARINE INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU
END OF FCST PD, CIGS 020-035 ARE LIKELY AT COASTAL AND VALLEY
SITES. TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS 020-025 EXPECTED
AROUND 25/11Z (+/- 2 HOURS). LIKELY TO LIFT TO 030-035 BY LATE
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS 025-030 LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING (+/- 3 HOURS).
20% CHANCE VFR CONDITIONS (VFR CEILINGS) PREVAIL THRU FCST PD.
NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
24/748 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. ACROSS
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE THIS
MORNING. ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS, SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES
FRIDAY MORNING. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CHANCES FOR SCA
LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. LOCALIZED SCA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
SCA WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL W WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA WINDS ACROSS SB CHANNEL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON SUNDAY, ONSHORE W WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOCUSED ACROSS THE USUALLY FAVORED WATERS WITH INCREASING
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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