295
FXUS66 KLOX 242049
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
149 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
24/110 PM.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS, MAINLY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED MOST AREAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK STORM POSSIBLE
AROUND LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
24/148 PM.
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY. STILL
NOT CERTAIN OF PRECISE TIMING, BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
INDICATING VERY LIGHT RAIN RAIN AMOUNTS (MOST AREAS UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH EXCEPT MOUNTAINS AS MUCH AS A THIRD OF AN AN INCH).
THEREFORE, JUST VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS AT MOST. WINDS ALOFT ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST WITH THIS EVENT SO THAT'S NOT A FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION, PARTICULARLY
FROM SOUTHEAST SB COUNTY TO WESTERN LA COUNTY DUE TO THE
DOWNSLOPING CREATED BY THE TRANSVERSE RANGE.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY,
STRONGEST IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. MAX
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN. LOOK
FOR 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR
THE CSTS/VLYS.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY INTERIOR AREAS AND MOUNTAINS PROVIDED THE
SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREPONDERANCE OF MDL
GUIDANCE INDICATES. IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL BE DRY WITH CLEARING
SKIES SAVE FOR SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S.
NO ISSUES ON MONDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
24/146 PM.
ANOTHER LOW IMPACT WEATHER DAY TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK APPEAR TO BE DECREASING,
THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS STILL HOLDING ON TO SOME CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL. AFTER THAT MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
24/1718Z.
AT 1630Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR MARINE INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU
END OF FCST PD, CIGS 020-035 ARE LIKELY AT COASTAL AND VALLEY
SITES. TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS 020-025 EXPECTED
AROUND 25/11Z (+/- 2 HOURS). LIKELY TO LIFT TO 030-035 BY LATE
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS 025-030 LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING (+/- 3 HOURS).
20% CHANCE VFR CONDITIONS (VFR CEILINGS) PREVAIL THRU FCST PD.
NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
24/1247 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. ACROSS
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE THIS
MORNING. ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS, SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES
FRIDAY MORNING. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CHANCES FOR SCA
LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. LOCALIZED SCA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
SCA WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL W WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA WINDS ACROSS SB CHANNEL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON SUNDAY, ONSHORE W WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOCUSED ACROSS THE USUALLY FAVORED WATERS WITH INCREASING
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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