420
FXUS66 KLOX 092017
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
117 PM PDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
09/115 PM.
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S
THROUGH MONDAY. 100 DEGREE READINGS MAY OCCUR LOCALLY IN THE
WARMEST VALLEYS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLING
WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
09/116 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION, HOWEVER A
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER IS SO FAR KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
MILD SIDE. A SLIGHT OFFSHORE TREND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL
RESULT IN WARMING IN MOST AREAS, PEAKING MONDAY, THOUGH THE
GRADIENT TRENDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WIPE OUT THE
MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE INTERMEDIATE AREAS
BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE VALLEYS. THIS INCLUDES THE DOWNTOWN LA
AREA AS WELL MOST AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MILES OF THE COAST. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THESE AREAS IS HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S, BUT IF SOME OF THE BOLDER ENSEMBLES VERIFY THEN THE
WARMER AIR COULD PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR THE VALLEYS THERE
IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S, BUT THE LATEST
HEAT RISK CALCULATIONS INDICATE THAT THEY WILL BE BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL RE-EVALUATE SUNDAY, BUT UNLESS GRADIENTS
SHIFT SIGNIFICANTLY OFFSHORE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE HOT
ENOUGH TO QUALIFY.
ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS WILL INDUCE A STRONG ONSHORE TREND
WITH ALL COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS COOLING OFF 5-10 DEGREES.
DESERT AREAS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN HOT AND DRY, AND WITH
THE BIG INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER RISK THERE.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
09/113 PM.
A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WITH A RETURN OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY WHEN
THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. FOLLOWING THE LOW PASSAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. EARLY INDICATIONS
SUGGEST WINDS GUSTY TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THOSE AREAS. ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MAINLY
FOR VALLEYS AND OTHER INLAND AREAS, WITH LOWER 90S RETURNING TO
THE VALLEYS.
AVIATION
09/1735Z.
AT 1625Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3400 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS AND CIG HGT BY +/- 200 FT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS AROUND 015 SHOULD
SCATTER 19-20Z SAT. 30% CHANCE CIGS REMAIN 20Z-02Z OR AT LEAST
PERIODIC BKN CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER, CIGS EXPECTED LOWER TO IFR
006 (+/- 200FT). FAIR CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING TIME, BUT WITH 30%
CHANCE CIGS LINGER THRU END OF FCST PD. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL AND CLEARING TIMES OF
CIGS SHOULD BE ACCURATE WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE AS
LOW AS OVC003.
MARINE
09/744 AM.
GALE WARNINGS GO IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
LAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS - MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PZZ670. SHORT PERIOD SEAS PEAKING 10 TO 13 FEET ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEARSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MUCH CALMER AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, CHANCES FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH
DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 645-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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