249
FXUS66 KLOX 100407
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
907 PM PDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
09/115 PM.
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S
THROUGH MONDAY. 100 DEGREE READINGS MAY OCCUR LOCALLY IN THE
WARMEST VALLEYS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLING
WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
09/808 PM.
FOR THE SHORT TERM, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING,
SYNOPTICALLY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MONDAY THEN
INCREASE A BIT ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE HEAT.
WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MONDAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE DESERTS. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN,
A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
NOTICEABLY COOLER. AT THIS TIME, HEAT RISK LOOKS TO RANGE FROM THE
MINOR TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. SO, DO NOT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD HEAT
ISSUES THAT WOULD REQUIRE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME, BUT THAT
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. ON TUESDAY, AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
A 5-10 DEGREE COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST, SO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUES FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LOWER COASTAL VALLEYS. OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FOR WINDS, THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
09/113 PM.
A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WITH A RETURN OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY WHEN
THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. FOLLOWING THE LOW PASSAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. EARLY INDICATIONS
SUGGEST WINDS GUSTY TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THOSE AREAS. ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MAINLY
FOR VALLEYS AND OTHER INLAND AREAS, WITH LOWER 90S RETURNING TO
THE VALLEYS.
AVIATION
09/2212Z.
AT 2130Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR KWJF
AND KPMD.
FOR ALL OTHER SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS. TIMING OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB IN
THE 11Z-17Z TIME FRAME.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. NO SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
MARINE
09/906 PM.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, AND WILL BE
STRONGEST ACROSS PZZ670. SHORT PERIOD SEAS PEAKING 10 TO 12 FEET
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, STRONG SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEARSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, AND SOUTHWARD FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MUCH CALMER AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, CHANCES FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH
DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...BLACK/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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