371
FXUS66 KLOX 100556
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1056 PM PDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
09/115 PM.
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S
THROUGH MONDAY. 100 DEGREE READINGS MAY OCCUR LOCALLY IN THE
WARMEST VALLEYS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLING
WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
09/808 PM.
FOR THE SHORT TERM, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING,
SYNOPTICALLY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MONDAY THEN
INCREASE A BIT ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE HEAT.
WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MONDAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE DESERTS. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN,
A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
NOTICEABLY COOLER. AT THIS TIME, HEAT RISK LOOKS TO RANGE FROM THE
MINOR TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. SO, DO NOT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD HEAT
ISSUES THAT WOULD REQUIRE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME, BUT THAT
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. ON TUESDAY, AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
A 5-10 DEGREE COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST, SO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUES FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LOWER COASTAL VALLEYS. OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FOR WINDS, THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
09/113 PM.
A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WITH A RETURN OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY WHEN
THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. FOLLOWING THE LOW PASSAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. EARLY INDICATIONS
SUGGEST WINDS GUSTY TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THOSE AREAS. ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MAINLY
FOR VALLEYS AND OTHER INLAND AREAS, WITH LOWER 90S RETURNING TO
THE VALLEYS.
AVIATION
10/0548Z.
AT 0522Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
FOR ALL OTHER SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. TIMING OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECASTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDITIONS
AT KPRB IN THE 11Z-17Z TIME FRAME.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. NO SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
MARINE
09/910 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SCA) WILL FOLLOW THE GALE WARNINGS THAT
WERE IN EFFECT LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER ZONES NEAR AND NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. LARGE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE WINDS WEAKEN. IN ADDITION, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, CHANCES FOR SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 645-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/MW
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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