793
FXUS66 KLOX 101602
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
902 AM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
10/841 AM.
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S
THROUGH MONDAY. 100 DEGREE READINGS MAY OCCUR LOCALLY IN THE
WARMEST VALLEYS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT, EXPANDING INTO THE VALLEYS TUESDAY AS A
COOLING TREND BEGINS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
10/901 AM.
***UPDATE***
MORNING STRATUS RETURNED TO MOST COAST/VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
DEPTH OF 1500-2000 FEET. GRADIENTS TO THE EAST ARE TRENDING
SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A
2-5 DEGREE BOOST IN TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
MONDAY STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THIS STRETCH WITH
HIGHS RISING BY 3-6 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND AROUND 100 IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. THESE ARE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, LOCALLY AS
MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, HOWEVER THEY ARE
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON THE LATEST HEAT RISK CALCULATIONS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN INCREASE A BIT ON TUESDAY.
LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND
THE MARINE LAYER SHRINKS. AWAY FROM THE COAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER, HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP THE COASTS AND ESP THE NEARSHORE AREAS NOTICEABLY
COOLER. AT THIS TIME, HEAT RISK LOOKS TO RANGE FROM THE MINOR TO
MODERATE CATEGORIES. SO, DO NOT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD HEAT ISSUES
THAT WOULD REQUIRE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME, BUT THAT WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. ON TUESDAY, AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST, A 5-10
DEGREE COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST, SO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUES FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LOWER COASTAL VALLEYS. OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FOR WINDS, THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
10/228 AM.
PRETTY BENIGN WEATHER ON TAP FOR WED AND THU. AN UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HGTS WILL LOWER AND
MDT TO STG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAY GREY
PATTERN GOING OVERNIGHTS AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MORE COOLING
WILL BRING MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE CSTS
AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE VLYS.
RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE TRENDS WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS ON FRI AND SAT AND KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE
WESTERLY SANTA YNEZ RANGE AS WELL.
AVIATION
10/0931Z.
AT 0837Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
FOR ALL OTHER SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. TIMING OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECASTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDITIONS
AT KPRB IN THE 13Z-17Z TIME FRAME.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. NO SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
MARINE
10/1204 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SCA) WILL FOLLOW THE GALE WARNINGS THAT
WERE IN EFFECT LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER ZONES NEAR AND NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. LARGE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE WINDS WEAKEN. IN ADDITION, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, CHANCES FOR SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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