812
FXUS66 KLOX 102021
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
121 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
10/1231 PM.
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S
THROUGH MONDAY. 100 DEGREE READINGS MAY OCCUR LOCALLY IN THE
WARMEST VALLEYS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT, EXPANDING INTO THE VALLEYS TUESDAY AS A
COOLING TREND BEGINS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
10/106 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS BE PEAKING TODAY AND TOMORROW AND COMBINED
WITH WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THIS STRETCH WITH WARMER VALLEYS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOCALLY AROUND 100 IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY. LATEST HEAT RISK CALCULATIONS INDICATE THAT THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR DESPITE BEING 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
STILL EXPECTING A SOLID MARINE LAYER NEAR THE COAST, BUT MORE
SHALLOW THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO WARMING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE TRICKY AS THE MARINE LAYER BATTLES THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENT TRENDS, LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS
THERE, BUT GENERALLY EITHER SIMILAR TO TODAY AT THE BEACHES TO 1-3
DEGREES WARMER A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOME
BEACHES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF MALIBU.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES BY AT LEAST 3MB. EXPECTING CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND UP TO 5 DEGREES OF
COOLING NEAR THE COAST WITH AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ACROSS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WILL ONLY COOL 1-3 DEGREES WITH EASTERN PARTS OF THE VALLEY
STILL IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING HEAT,
INCREASED ONSHORE WINDS, AND STILL LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE
ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DESERT AREAS WILL DROP 10-15
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH AGAIN SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS. VALLEYS
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH LIKELY A RETURN
OF THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL AREAS WILL COOL 2-5 DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
10/121 PM.
INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO NEVADA. ENSEMBLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CHARTS SHOW INCREASING NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE WESTERN TRANSVERSE RANGE BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. GRADIENTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE -3 TO -5 RANGE DURING
THAT PERIOD THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS,
STRONGEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE MARINE
LAYER TO PUSH INTO MOST OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEYS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY, THEN
REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNS.
AVIATION
10/1803Z.
AT 1730Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1800 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
FOR ALL OTHER SITES, LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY 3 HOURS AND ONE FLIGHT CATEGORY.
THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VFR CONDS PREVAIL AFTER 00Z
FOR KBUR/KVNY. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB
IN THE 13Z-17Z TIME FRAME.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
VFR CONDS PREVAIL AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
10/1103 AM.
ACROSS THE OUTER AND NORTHERN WATERS, LARGE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE WINDS WEAKEN WITH SCAS CONDS
LIKELY ENDING BY TONIGHT.
BY MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR SCA
LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WITH A POSSIBLE PEAK FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA CONDS DURING THIS TIME.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OUTER WATER GALES NEXT WEEKEND.
DENSE FOG MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EACH NIGHT TO MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...MUNROE
MARINE...MUNROE
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
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