722
FXUS66 KLOX 112104
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
204 PM PDT MON MAY 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
11/103 PM.
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THEN CLEARING TO NEAR THE
COAST BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
11/143 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW
HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HUGGED THE COASTLINE AND MOST
BEACHES WERE SOCKED IN ALL DAY EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
MALIBU AND AROUND LONG BEACH.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AFTER TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL START
A SIGNIFICANT TREND FOR COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS TUESDAY, AND FAR
INTERIOR AREAS WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE UPPER LOW PASSAGE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND
WESTERN TRANSVERSE RANGE CREATING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THOSE AREAS, MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FORECAST ENSEMBLE GRADIENTS ARE STILL IN THE -3 TO -5
RANGE, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORIES IN
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
ONE POTENTIAL CHANGE FOR TOMORROW IS MODELS ARE INDICATING ALMOST
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING UP FROM BAJA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PW'S AND INSTABILITY TOMORROW BUT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IS STILL LACKING. THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
WINDS COMING FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THAT
FEATURE MOVES NORTH, THEN SHIFTING BACK TO A TYPICAL SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BEEN ADDED TO
THE FORECAST, BUT THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR BRIEF STORM ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY OR ADJACENT
MOUNTAINS.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY, MAINLY FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
11/144 PM.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH
WILL GREATLY REDUCE OR ELIMINATE THE LOW CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DECENT BUMP UP IN TEMPS OF 3 TO 6 LOCALLY 8 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA.
FURTHER WARMING SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OR NO MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WILL BRING MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE CSTS AND 80S IN THE
VLYS OR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OVER NORMAL.
WEAK TROFFING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST. MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL A DEGREE OR 2 OVER MOST AREAS.
IN ADDITION THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BRING ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
AVIATION
11/2054Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KWJF AND KPMD TAFS.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINDER OF TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY 3 HOURS AND ONE FLIGHT CATEGORY.
THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR
KBUR AND KVNY 10-16Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHC OF 2SM BR
OVC004 CONDS 10Z-16Z.
MARINE
11/149 PM.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN/BUILD, WITH SCA WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS STARTING
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SEAS REACHING STEEP AND CHOPPY SCA
LEVELS AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SCA WINDS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST
(30-50 PERCENT) CHANCES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
LARGE SCA LEVEL SEAS OF 10-12+ FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
OUTER AND NORTHERN WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND.
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING
TUESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...MUNROE
MARINE...MUNROE/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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