397
FXUS66 KLOX 130604
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1104 PM PDT TUE MAY 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
12/1256 PM.
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CLOUDS LINGERING AT SOME
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TIMES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
12/1104 PM.
***UPDATE***
CONTINUING TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT DISPARITY IN TEMPERATURES FROM
THE COASTS LOCKED UNDER MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND THE SUNNY INLAND
AREAS. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS REACHED DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS SUPPORTED
BY A STRONG ONSHORE LAX-DAG GRADIENT, AND CLOUDS KEPT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE COOL UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COLDER OVER THE INTERIOR TOMORROW
AS FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT THE MARINE LAYER LATER ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, STILL
EXPECTING PLENTY OF MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS PUSHING DEEP INTO
THE VALLEYS, SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
COASTS FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY,
ACCOUNTING FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE COOLING TRENDS OVER THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK
AROUND MOST OF THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THANKS
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG INVERSION. ISOLATED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOME INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THIS
IS EVIDENCE OF THE WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTHEAST THAT
WILL SUPPORT ABOUT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
TO INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN VENTURA
INTO NORTHEAST SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. DRY LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS
AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST CONCERN IF A THUNDERSTORM
WERE TO FORM.
A WEAK TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BOOST THE MARINE LAYER
ANOTHER 1000 FEET OR SO TO 3000-4000 FEET INTO WEDNESDAY. SENDING
THE COOLING TRENDS EXPERIENCED TODAY FURTHER INLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ADDITIONAL
DEEPENING MAY SUPPORT SPOTTY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY INTO FOOTHILL TO
LOWER MOUNTAIN LOCALS. ONE MORE DAY OF SLOW TO NO CLEARING OF LOW
CLOUDS IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES AS
A REVERSE CLEARING (CLEARING AT THE COAST BEFORE THE
VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS) DAY IS POSSIBLE.
BREEZY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IS EXPECTED AFTERNOON TO
EVENING, POSSIBLY BOOSTING TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS FOR AREAS PRONE
TO NORTHWEST WINDS (SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY & I-5 CORRIDOR
IN THE MOUNTAINS) WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LIKELY SHRINK THE
MARINE LAYER CLOSER TO THE COAST AND LEAD TO WARMING TRENDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT NO WHERE NEAR THE HEAT WE SAW JUST
YESTERDAY.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
12/1256 PM.
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SHARP TROUGH (FOR MAY) IS POISED TO PASS NEARBY. AN INLAND TRACK
(50 PERCENT CHANCE) WOULD LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY WINDS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SOME INTERIOR AREAS SUCH
AS THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY INTO SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE
WINDS WITH DECENT WARMING AND DRYING TRENDS INTO MONDAY. A CLOSE
PASS (30 PERCENT CHANCE) WOULD LEAD TO GUSTY AND PROBABLY ADVISORY
NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE INTERIOR AND MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
13/0014Z.
AT 00Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2900 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 5600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KPMD & KWJF THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE CURRENT GUSTY WINDS WILL
IMPROVE BY 04Z BUT WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH MVFR MOST COMMON. BRIEF IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERYWHERE 10-15Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY IN CEILING CATEGORY
AND TIMING (PLUS OR MINUS 3 HOURS). LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
ANY CLEARING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST WINDS STAYING UNDER 8
KNOTS.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILING CATEGORY AND TIMING (PLUS
OR MINUS 3 HOURS). HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST WINDS STAYING
UNDER 8 KNOTS.
MARINE
12/736 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND SEAS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT,
EXCEPT FOR A A LIKELY BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY 9AM TO 2PM. MODERATE
RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND PEAKING OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH LARGE 10+ FOOT STEEP SEAS.
SCY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL COAST WATERS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH STRONGER WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL STAY UNDER SCY FOR ALL OTHER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SCY CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND SEAS COULD
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURFING CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE UNPROTECTED WEST-FACING BEACHES SUCH AS
ALONG THE VENTURA COASTLINE. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MUNROE
AVIATION...KITTELL
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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