681
FXUS66 KLOX 131750
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PDT WED MAY 13 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
13/341 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH LOW CLOUDS
WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING. CHANCES ARE HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TIMES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
13/759 AM.
***UPDATE***
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DEEP MARINE
LAYER WITH CLOUDS WELL INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OTHERWISE. CURRENT SOUNDING
DATA INDICATE MARINE INVERSION AROUND 3000 FEET IN DEPTH. SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, GUSTING 30-40 MPH, ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE INVERSION AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS, CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
SLOW SIDE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING BEHAVIOR
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AT THIS TIME, WILL GO WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF CLEARING SKIES TO NEAR THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
WILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE HOVERING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, GUSTING 25-45 MPH, WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER, ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LOCALIZED.
OVERALL, CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM. SO, NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
MAY GRAY IS HERE AND THE MARINE LAYER IS CURRENTLY 3000 TO 4000
FEET DEEP WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERSPREAD ACROSS MOST COASTS AND
VALLEYS. LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY DISTURB THE MARINE LAYER RESULTING IN BRIEF
SCATTERED SKIES. ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY, SO WHILE CLEARING WILL BE SLOW, SUNNIES
SKIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
REVERSE CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHERE CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES
CLEAR OUT BEFORE THE VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGHING WILL YIELD MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR (LOW 80S COMMON). THE
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE
INTERIOR WILL RESULT IN WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND THUS INCREASED
SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES AND COASTAL
VALLEYS TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE COMMON.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL TREND UPWARDS
GRADUALLY AND MODERATE- TO- STRONG ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL PERSIST. OVERNGIHT THROUGH MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY (DUE TO MARGINALLY WEAKER
ONSHORE FLOW), AND CHANGE LITTLE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S TO BE COMMON LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
BEACHES AND COASTAL VALLEYS, WITH 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
DESERTS/VALLEYS.
BREEZY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR AREAS PRONE TO NORTHWEST WINDS (SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY & I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNTAINS) THIS EVENING AND AGAIN AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
13/340 AM.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. A PASSING TROUGH HAS THE CHANCE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE INTERIOR. AT THIS POINT, ENSEMBLE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY DETER MARINE LAYER CLOUDS. THUS
TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES, AND PERHAPS SOME INLAND COASTAL
AREAS, MAY STAY IN THE 60S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE
TO SEE A 30+ DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DAYTIME HIGHS AT THE
BEACHES COMPARED TO THE DESERTS, RATHER LIKE WHAT WAS OBSERVED THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS.
AVIATION
13/1749Z.
AT 1719Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 3500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS OFF BY
ONE CATEGORY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL AND CLEARING TIMES OF
CIGS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. EXPECTING RETURN OF MVFR CIGS
010-015 AROUND 14/08Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR BKN008 POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
13/754 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND
SEAS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR A A LIKELY BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY 9AM TO 2PM.
MODERATE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND PEAKING
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH LARGE 10-15 FEET STEEP SEAS.
SCY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL COAST WATERS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH STRONGER WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL STAY UNDER SCY FOR ALL OTHER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SCY CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND SEAS COULD
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURFING CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE UNPROTECTED WEST-FACING BEACHES SUCH AS
ALONG THE VENTURA COASTLINE. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD/THOMPSON
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...RK/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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