667
FXUS66 KLOX 132054
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
154 PM PDT WED MAY 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
13/341 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH LOW CLOUDS
WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING. CHANCES ARE HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TIMES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
13/150 PM.
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, A FLAT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN INSIDE SLIDER DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE SHORT TERM, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN H5 HEIGHTS, THE MARINE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP (AROUND 2500 FEET OR
GREATER IN DEPTH). SO, IN THEORY, THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRATUS
EACH NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER EXTENSIVE (WELL INTO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS). HOWEVER WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE
INVERSION NOT BEING TOO STRONG, THE STRATUS COVERAGE COULD END UP
BEING LESS THAN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SO, CONFIDENCE IN THE
STRATUS FORECAST IS LOW TO MODERATE. OTHER THAN ANY MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR WINDS, DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY, JUST TYPICALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WINDS
INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS (GUSTS 40-55 MPH) ACROSS THE USUAL
SPOTS (INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE). SO, FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL CLOSELY.
FINALLY AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY (WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY). HOWEVER FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS, THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT
SATURDAY WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING AS THE INSIDE
SLIDER MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
13/150 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, THE EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW
SIDE. MODELS INDICATE THE INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH SOME FORM OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN "CONCERN" WILL BE THE WINDS. WITH THE INSIDE
SLIDER, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AS MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE TYPICAL GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE SOME AREA-WIDE COOLING ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S.
FINALLY WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF MOUNTAINS EACH DAY.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
13/1749Z.
AT 1719Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 3500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS OFF BY
ONE CATEGORY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL AND CLEARING TIMES OF
CIGS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. EXPECTING RETURN OF MVFR CIGS
010-015 AROUND 14/08Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR BKN008 POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
13/1210 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS &
SEAS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH RISK OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND
PEAKING OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH LARGE 10-15+ FEET STEEP SEAS.
SCY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL COAST WATERS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH STRONGER WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH RISK OF GALES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE CHANCE ACROSS THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL ON SATURDAY.
GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. REFER TO MWWLOX FOR DETAILS.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND SEAS COULD
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURFING CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE UNPROTECTED WEST-FACING BEACHES SUCH AS
ALONG THE VENTURA COASTLINE. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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