616
FXUS66 KLOX 140431
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
931 PM PDT WED MAY 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
13/835 PM.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TIMES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH LESS MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
13/929 PM.
***UPDATE***
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDED ABOUT 2 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE
COASTS AS THE MARINE LAYER ERODED AWAY QUICKLY TODAY AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHIFTED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHIFT LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT
COOLING OVER THE INTERIOR (8 TO 15 DEGREES). LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
REFORMATION OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TONIGHT, WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
LESS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GENERALLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ASIDE FROM
SOME GUSTY, SUB- ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND
FOOTHILLS AREAS. SATURDAY, WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM THE
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST SOUTH TO THE WESTERN SANTA YNEZ
RANGE.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, A FLAT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN INSIDE SLIDER DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE SHORT TERM, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN H5 HEIGHTS, THE MARINE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP (AROUND 2500 FEET OR
GREATER IN DEPTH). SO, IN THEORY, THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRATUS
EACH NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER EXTENSIVE (WELL INTO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS). HOWEVER WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE
INVERSION NOT BEING TOO STRONG, THE STRATUS COVERAGE COULD END UP
BEING LESS THAN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SO, CONFIDENCE IN THE
STRATUS FORECAST IS LOW TO MODERATE. OTHER THAN ANY MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR WINDS, DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY, JUST TYPICALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WINDS
INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS (GUSTS 40-55 MPH) ACROSS THE USUAL
SPOTS (INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE). SO, FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL CLOSELY.
FINALLY AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY (WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY). HOWEVER FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS, THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT
SATURDAY WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING AS THE INSIDE
SLIDER MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
13/150 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, THE EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW
SIDE. MODELS INDICATE THE INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH SOME FORM OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN "CONCERN" WILL BE THE WINDS. WITH THE INSIDE
SLIDER, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AS MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE TYPICAL GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE SOME AREA-WIDE COOLING ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S.
FINALLY WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF MOUNTAINS EACH DAY.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
14/0250Z.
AT 00Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 3200 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS OFF BY ONE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, BUT BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KSMX. CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE 2-3 HRS LATER
THAN FORECAST, OR NOT AT ALL.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL AND CLEARING TIMES OF
CIGS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
13/926 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND
SEAS LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH RISK
OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND PEAKING OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH LARGE 10-15+ FEET STEEP SEAS.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL COAST WATERS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH STRONGER WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY WITH A HIGH RISK OF GALES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE CHANCE FOR GALES ACROSS THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. REFER TO MWWLOX FOR DETAILS.
BEACHES
13/927 PM.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND SEAS COULD
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURFING CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE UNPROTECTED WEST-FACING BEACHES SUCH AS
ALONG THE VENTURA COASTLINE. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/THOMPSON
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
MARINE...BLACK/LUND
BEACHES...KL
SYNOPSIS...PHILLIPS/MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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