578
FXUS66 KLOX 141012
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
312 AM PDT THU MAY 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
14/205 AM.
SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY, LESS MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
14/311 AM.
WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN
SATURDAY A DRY INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN FALL RAPIDLY SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MODERATE-
TO- STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY, WITH AN INCREASE
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTING FRIDAY. NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, SOUTHWESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY, THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, AND THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS
(INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR). WINDS ACROSS THE SAME AREAS
WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING (AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING), WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO
55 MPH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY (MAINLY
THE WESTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE), AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. SOME LOCAL WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THESE TIME
PERIODS.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
CLOUDS EACH MORNING ACROSS ALL THE COASTS AND VALLEYS. HOWEVER
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS WEAKENED THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION,
THUS CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE PATCHY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
THIS MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS LA/VENTURA COUNTIES, WHEN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
MILD, WITH COASTS AND VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS, INTERIOR VALLEYS AND DESERTS WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 80S, WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
13/150 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, THE EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW
SIDE. MODELS INDICATE THE INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH SOME FORM OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN "CONCERN" WILL BE THE WINDS. WITH THE INSIDE
SLIDER, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AS MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE TYPICAL GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE SOME AREA-WIDE COOLING ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S.
FINALLY WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF MOUNTAINS EACH DAY.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
14/0714Z.
AT 0649Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5900 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS OFF BY ONE
CATEGORY. EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, BUT BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KSMX. CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE 2-3 HRS LATER
THAN FORECAST, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF NOT AT ALL.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL AND CLEARING TIMES OF
CIGS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. 20% CHANCE OF THE EAST WIND COMPONENT
REACHING 6 KT FORM 11Z-17Z THU.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL AND CLEARING TIMES OF
CIGS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF NOT FORMING AT
ALL.
MARINE
14/159 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND
SEAS LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF
STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND PEAKING OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH LARGE 10-15+ FEET STEEP SEAS.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL COAST WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
STRONGER WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY, AND A HIGH RISK OF GALES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE CHANCE FOR GALES
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. REFER TO MWWLOX FOR DETAILS.
BEACHES
13/927 PM.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND SEAS COULD
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURFING CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE UNPROTECTED WEST-FACING BEACHES SUCH AS
ALONG THE VENTURA COASTLINE. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD/THOMPSON
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...BLACK/LUND
BEACHES...KL
SYNOPSIS...PHILLIPS/MW/RS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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