745
FXUS66 KLOX 141853
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1153 AM PDT THU MAY 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
14/1152 AM.
SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING TREND MOVES IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
14/1149 AM.
THE MARINE INVERSION DEEPENED TO NEAR 3000 FT AT LAX THIS
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WERE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS THIS MORNING BUT ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF
THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TODAY AS AN H5 580-582 DAM RIDGE PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY SW-W WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST INTO THE
ADJACENT VLYS TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR
VLYS, MTNS AND DESERTS.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD WNW FLOW
ALOFT THRU THE DAY FRI, THEN LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS WILL MOVE INTO CA
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FAIRLY POTENT INSIDE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL NV BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUN.
BY THEN, H5 HEIGHTS OVER SW CA WILL LOWER TO AROUND 568-570 DAM
WITH STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT.
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE COAST AND VLYS
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING, AFFECT THE COAST AND VLYS MAINLY OVER
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING, AND COVER MOST
COAST/VLYS EXCEPT THE SBA COUNTY S COAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU SUN.
THE MAIN WX IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE WINDS.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY
MTNS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING,
WHERE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES.
NAM FCST PRESSURE GRADIENTS FOR SBA-SMX FOR 00Z SUN (5 PM SAT)
IS -4.0 MB. WITH THESE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE VTU
COUNTY MTNS INTO THE SBA COUNTY MTNS INCLUDING THE SANTA YNEZ MTNS
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT, WHERE ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
IN FACT, THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH-END ADVISORY-LEVEL
WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE WIND-FAVORED
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ MTNS SAT EVENING. WIND
ADVISORIES FOR THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT AND
WOULD LIKELY BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG AND GUSTY N WINDS SHOULD AFFECT THIS AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT WITH MORE ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS.
TEMPS WILL TURN WARMER INLAND ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL CLOSER TO THE COAST. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SAT FOLLOWED BY A COOL-DOWN TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS ON SUN.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
14/1150 AM.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT THE AREA TO THE EAST, 500
MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARDS. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS
AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PERIODS OF WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW,
PARTICULARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
MOUNTAINS. IF OFFSHORE FLOW DOES OCCUR, COASTAL TEMPERATURES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S, OTHERWISE
HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE FAVORED. OVERALL A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR INLAND AREAS. AWAY FROM THE BEACHES, HIGHS WILL INCREASE FROM
MID 70S TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY TO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BY WEDNESAY
(5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) THEN TURN ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
THURSDAY. MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS.
AVIATION
14/1736Z.
AT 1638Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 4000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS OFF BY ONE
CATEGORY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CLEARING OF MVFR CIGS 020-025
EXPECTED 19Z-21Z THURSDAY. CIGS NEAR 010-012 SHOULD RETURN 08Z
FRIDAY (+/- 2 HOURS). CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT REACHING
020 THRESHOLD BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF EAST
WIND COMPONENT REACHING 7-8KTS 12Z-16Z FRIDAY.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
14/823 AM.
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. REFER TO MWWLOX FOR DETAILS.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND
SEAS LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG GALES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LARGE 10-15+ FOOT STEEP SEAS.
PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL
COAST WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG GALES ARE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE CHANCE FOR GALES ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THESE DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS COULD CAPSIZE OR DAMAGE SMALL AND
LARGE VESSELS. MARINERS SHOULD ADJUST PLANS NOW TO REMAIN IN SAFE
HARBOR.
BEACHES
14/824 AM.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND SEAS COULD
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURFING CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE UNPROTECTED WEST-FACING BEACHES SUCH AS
ALONG THE VENTURA COASTLINE. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SIRARD/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
BEACHES...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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