286
FXUS66 KLOX 150311
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
811 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
14/1152 AM.
SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING TREND MOVES IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
14/809 PM.
OVERALL, LATEST MODELS EXHIBIT GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY THEN AN INSIDE SLIDER WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY THEN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS,
MORE SPECIFICALLY THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CURRENT MODELS REMAIN
VERY CONSISTENT, INDICATING MODERATE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SO, WILL EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE USUAL SPOTS
(I-5 CORRIDOR, NORTHWESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE) AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY (WITH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
LIKELY THE STRONGEST TIME PERIOD). IN THESE AREAS, HIGH RESOLUTION
ENSEMBLES INDICATED AT LEAST A 70% CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS
(40-55 MPH) AND EVEN A 20% CHANCE OF WARNING-LEVEL GUSTS (60+
MPH). ADDITIONALLY, THE CENTRAL COAST WILL LIKELY ALSO EXPERIENCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS (30-40 MPH) ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE VARIOUS WIND PRODUCTS.
OTHER THAN THE WINDS, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, THE MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN ON THE DEEP
SIDE, BUT THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE
AREAL EXTENT OF THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS. SO, SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT STRATUS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN ANY STRATUS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL EXPECT NEAR PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THERE WILL BE SOME
COOLING AREA-WIDE AS THE INSIDE SLIDER BRINGS IN SOME COLDER AIR
TO THE REGION.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
14/809 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE
PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN H5 HEIGHTS. HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE, THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES
INDICATE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WHILE THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES
INDICATE PERSISTENT WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.
FORECAST-WISE, EITHER MODEL FORECAST INDICATES CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME
AMOUNT OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLOUDS EACH DAY, BUT THE AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE AT THE WHIMS OF THE SURFACE GRADIENTS. OTHER THAN
ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
WITH THIS OVERALL PATTERN, A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WITH
ITS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS, TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
COULD BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS.
AVIATION
15/0102Z.
AT 0040Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS OFF BY ONE
CATEGORY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS NEAR 010-012 SHOULD
RETURN 08Z FRI (+/- 2 HOURS). THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF EAST WIND
COMPONENT REACHING 7-8KTS 12Z-16Z FRIDAY.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES
COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
14/149 PM.
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. REFER TO MWWLOX FOR DETAILS.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND
SEAS LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG GALES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LARGE 10-15+ FOOT STEEP SEAS.
PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL
COAST WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG GALES ARE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GALE WATCH FOR THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH A HIGH CHANCE THAT
IT WILL BE CONVERTED TO A WARNING WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
THESE DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS COULD CAPSIZE OR DAMAGE SMALL AND
LARGE VESSELS. MARINERS SHOULD ADJUST PLANS NOW TO REMAIN IN SAFE
HARBOR.
BEACHES
14/149 PM.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTLINE. PLEASE REFER TO CFWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS
FOR YOUR AREA. IN GENERAL, HAZARDOUS SURFING AND SWIMMING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BLACK/LUND
MARINE...BLACK
BEACHES...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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